The Japanese Economic News published a commentary by William Bratt, former head of HSBC's Asia-Pacific equity research. He bluntly stated that China's manufacturing dominance is rare in the post-war global economy, similar to the position the United States once held.

China's export share increased from 17% in 2017 to 21% in 2021, exceeding the combined total of Germany, the United States, and Japan.

William Bratt analyzed that China's manufacturing resilience is extremely strong, even facing trade friction and geopolitical conflicts, its export growth rate still outperformed Germany, the United States, Japan, and South Korea.

In 2021, China accounted for nearly half of manufacturing exports in East and Southeast Asia, far more than less than a third 15 years ago. This indicates that China is not maintaining competitiveness through low wages but rather through scale effects driving innovation and specialization.

For example, Japan and South Korea's telecommunications equipment and shipbuilding industries have gradually been squeezed by China. Australia and India, despite trying to be competitors, have actually increased their reliance on Chinese imports over the past three years.

A UN Conference on Trade and Development report pointed out that China supplied global medical equipment during critical periods, with many countries' hospitals using ventilators produced in China. This not only saved lives but also proved the reliability of China's supply chain. William Bratt believes that efforts to "de-Chinaize" underestimate reality, as there are no sufficiently large alternative suppliers, and decoupling is difficult to achieve.

The comprehensiveness of China's manufacturing is key, unlike some countries that only excel in a single field. China covers multiple industries such as automobiles, ships, food processing, medical supplies, and home appliances, all of which rank among the world's best. In 2023, China's manufacturing output reached $4.66 trillion, accounting for 28% of the global total, more than the combined total of the United States, Germany, and Japan.

William Bratt's book "The Rise of China, the Decline of Asia" was published in 2021, providing background for this view. He emphasized that China has the most complete industrial system globally, and has maintained the top position in manufacturing since 2010.

By 2024, China's global manufacturing share approached 30%, with high-tech fields such as photovoltaic components accounting for over 80%. Even though emerging countries like Vietnam have cheaper labor, their imports from China have only increased, showing that China remains at the top of the supply chain. William Bratt pointed out that this dominance allows China to influence the Asian economic landscape, similar to how the United States used industrial leadership to advance its interests after the war.

The article criticized Western efforts to adjust supply chains, ignoring the multi-layered factors behind China's competitiveness. Although China's wages have risen, productivity has increased faster, and its advantage in labor-intensive industries remains. China's export structure is moving toward high-end, with electric vehicles and new energy equipment leading globally.

Entering 2025, China's manufacturing output is expected to remain high, with a global share of about 30%. A UN report confirmed that China's progress in digital manufacturing and semiconductors further changes trade standards.

William Bratt's analysis has influenced the investment circle, with many funds adjusting their Asian allocations, acknowledging China's dominant position. The article predicts that China's manufacturing will continue to grow rapidly, with no signs of slowing down, and it's the strongest player seen since 1945.

China is reshaping the global supply chain through its manufacturing without external interference. By mid-2025, the Asia Economic Conference often cited this view, discussing regional integration. China's exports to Vietnam have increased, promoting local assembly, but core technologies remain in China's hands.

Global manufacturing index shows that by 2025, China's lead has widened, with twice the share of the United States. High-tech exports now account for over 40%, covering a wide range from food to military. The article emphasizes that few countries can match China's comprehensive strength, with the United States being the only similar example after the war.

China's manufacturing rise stems from policy support and market size, and the world benefits from its efficient supply. By 2025, China contributes one-third of the global manufacturing increase, proving its dominant position.

By 2026, China seeks balance in excess, optimizing its export structure to reduce dependence on low-end products. World Bank data shows that China's industrial system is sound, covering the entire supply chain.

China's dominance does not rely on zero-sum games but on mutual benefit, changing the world order for the first time by an Asian country.

The future of China's manufacturing is bright, with steady growth expected in 2026.

References

Experts: China's "World Factory" Status Will Not Change China Daily

Original: toutiao.com/article/7592165651398099492/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.