Lost both abroad and at home, is Trump's defeat already certain? The Democrats swept Trump 2.0's first major elections, which means the King of the People (Dang Wang) has a lot to worry about.

(Has Trump's good days come to an end?)

On November 4th local time, the Democrats swept three elections, promoting a new generation of leaders. Moderate Democrats Abigail Spanberger and Micky Dolenz won the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey, respectively; 34-year-old Zoran Mammadani won the mayoral election in New York City.

U.S. media described the victories of these three as "easy wins."

Spanberger and Dolenz won their gubernatorial races with absolute advantages;

Mammadani also did so. According to the New York City Board of Elections, this mayoral election had the highest voter turnout in New York City's 50 years of mayoral elections, with over 2 million New Yorkers participating in the voting.

Even so, in the approximately 90% of votes counted, Mammadani still led his opponents by about 9 percentage points.

Mammadani is not only the youngest mayor in New York City in over a century, but also the city's first Muslim mayor, first South Asian mayor, and first African American mayor, making him truly a powerhouse.

(Mammadani is the youngest mayor of New York City)

This was the first major election under Trump 2.0, and obviously, the Democrats secured a strong opening victory.

American public opinion generally believes that this indicates that the Democratic Party, having lost the presidential election, is regaining political momentum.

On one hand, the Democrats have changed their campaign strategy, launching more progressive candidates instead of circling around the moderates, trying to win back swing voters. Mammadani's sudden rise confirms this view.

On the other hand, it's all thanks to Trump.

Over the past nine months since Trump took office, Americans have experienced the most chaotic and volatile period.

The main reason is known to everyone: Trump started tariff wars everywhere, then withdrew from them, causing great losses for American consumers, businesses, and farmers.

Bloomberg directly pointed out in its report that the Democrats' victory preliminarily indicates that American voters are dissatisfied with the economic situation in Trump's second term.

In addition, Trump's actions during his second term, such as renovating the White House ballroom, creating satirical AI videos to smear American citizens, and spending huge amounts on two military parades just to let him boast, have left a bad impression on American voters. As a result, multiple "No kings" protests have erupted across the states.

(Trump's actions have left a bad impression on American people)

Democratic politicians have seized this opportunity to launch political attacks against Trump.

This includes Mammadani, who won the mayoral election in New York City. During a public rally, he directly called Trump a "dictator" in front of his supporters, aligning with the current criticism of Trump among American people.

Many American voters, including those who originally elected Trump, have begun to regret their decision and are deeply disappointed in Trump, giving the Democrats an opportunity to quietly build strength and regain political momentum.

At this point, Trump can be said to have lost both abroad and at home.

Externally, the tariff war resulted in the U.S. being hit hard by China's rare earth card, forcing it to negotiate with China and return to square one; internally, the chaos gave the Democrats an opportunity to rise.

This initial victory by the Democrats could pave the way for them to reclaim control of Congress next year, which would be almost unacceptable for the Trump administration.

After all, if they lose control of Congress, Trump's subsequent term will be anything but smooth. Any bills he wants to pass or policies he wants to implement will depend on the Democrats' approval.

(Losing the midterms, Trump will face difficulties)

The U.S. midterm elections will take place in November next year, but the two parties usually start preparing and building momentum in early next year. It can be expected that Trump will focus on domestic issues and prepare for the midterms.

For us, the internal political struggle in the U.S. is irrelevant, but we need to be very careful. Trump might use foreign policy as propaganda at home, break trade agreements with China, or try some tricks again. Therefore, we should be ready for contingency plans in case Trump turns against us again.

For Trump and the Republicans, this initial victory by the Democrats is undoubtedly a severe warning. The dissatisfaction of the American people with Trump's economic policies and governance style has begun to transform into specific vote punishment.

Therefore, facing the upcoming midterms next year, the Trump administration will definitely shift its focus to the domestic front, and a more intense party consolidation and external confrontation is about to unfold.

However, in this highly inward-looking and polarized context, the Trump administration's foreign policy, especially its policy toward China, may become more uncertain and utilitarian.

To meet domestic political needs, there is a significant risk that the U.S. may once again act inconsistently and provoke incidents.

Therefore, for China, we need to prepare multiple contingency plans to deal with any potential "turning back" and new provocations from the U.S.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7569180489035039251/

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