Foreign Media: According to analysis by multiple authoritative think tanks and research institutions, Iran may suffer serious military damage, but the regime will not collapse in the short term.
The airstrikes have severely damaged Iran's military capabilities and decapitated several leaders, but the deep network and institutional structure that has supported the Islamic Republic for nearly half a century ensure that the remaining regime still maintains an overwhelming advantage over any challenger in the near future. History has shown that air strikes alone have never been able to independently overthrow a government - bombing often strengthens public unity rather than triggering rebellion. Iran may be "injured but not collapsed" in 2026.
Iran's current strategy is to achieve an "asymmetric protracted war" by reinforcing the "missile city," decentralizing command structures, and retaining second-strike capabilities, and to conduct calibrated retaliatory upgrades using missiles, drones, and proxy forces.
Iran's retaliation against Gulf Arab states may further isolate it, while its regional allies have been significantly weakened since 2023.
Iran has the capability to continue retaliating and causing costs, but there are almost no historical precedents for achieving a regime change.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858700677880969/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.