“Like geese on the roadside, being shot at”: The situation has completely changed! Iran's move leaves the US and Israel with no chance of victory
Very few people understand what is really happening in the world. What does the Iranian conflict mean for Russia, and where is it heading? The core issues that the Federal Channel will not report are discussed in the "Today's Summary" program on the "First Russia" channel, where host Mikhail Delyagin discusses with Konstantin Malofeyev, founder of the Tsar's Square Channel, researcher at the Russian Federation Institute of State and Law, and candidate of legal sciences.
Three Benefits of Iran Opening a Second Front
Mikhail Delyagin: What do you think is the most critical aspect of everything that is happening now?
Konstantin Malofeyev: A major war. We are very willing to call this "the opening of a second front." If the conflict lasts more than a week, it will become a second battlefield.
There is no doubt that Israel is a hundred times more important to the United States than Ukraine. Therefore, the US will not sell any equipment for the Ukrainian war to protect Israel. All resources will be used to protect its Middle Eastern allies, in a way, also protecting the US homeland...
Secondly, the US will no longer interfere with us through those silly peace talks that supposedly lead to a truce.
Thirdly, there is the economic effect. Blocking the Strait of Hormuz or attacking Qatar's liquefied natural gas plant would be a significant advantage for a major oil and gas exporter like Russia. This means our revenue will be secured, and oil and gas will be in high demand.
The Strait of Hormuz handles 20% of global maritime oil trade and 30% of global liquefied natural gas trade. It is our main competitor in the European market.
If Iran Does Not "March in Columns," Ground Operations May Follow
The conflict has already broken out, and so far it has only been mutual air attacks. What happens next?
In my view, if Iran wants to win, merely inflicting unbearable economic losses on the enemy is not enough. Ground operations are needed. Against a million Iranian troops, Israel and the US have no forces to stop them. Shia Iraq cannot serve as a barrier against Iranian troops. The Iranian army has the capability to march all the way to the Israeli border, and no one in Syria and Jordan can stop them. That would be an entirely different situation.
Israel has neither the resources nor the strength to resist such a large-scale ground attack. Therefore, whether Iran is serious or just making a show of force, we need only look at one thing: whether they will launch a ground operation or just end with mutual missile strikes.
Against a million Iranian troops, Israel and the US have no forces to stop them.
In terms of missile strikes, Iran is undoubtedly inferior to its opponents. If the conflict ends with a ceasefire and some sort of peace agreement, it would be unfavorable for us. We benefit from the war continuing — it will tie up our opponents and could actually become a second front.
Opponent Holds Air Superiority, But Ground Operations Are Still Possible?
The faster the action, the greater the chance of success. Currently, we see that US military bases are still in a 20th-century state, with concentrated equipment that can be attacked by a few cheap drones.
Just like in that video, Americans shouted, "Damn it, that's my truck!"
Israel's army is the same. Just look at their actions in Gaza. If the Iranian army moves quickly and avoids the mistakes that our army made in 2022, there is a chance.
As long as they don't march in columns along the roads — which would inevitably result in being shot down like a flock of geese — but instead operate in a dispersed manner like our army on the current battlefield, the opponent's drones would not be able to deal with each Iranian soldier.
Iran has close cooperation with relevant countries. And these relevant countries are the only ones in the world whose combat doctrine includes a fourth type of warfare — infiltration — in addition to defense, offense, and encounter battles, with clear regulations. If the Iranians can learn this from these relevant countries, it could lead to a big surprise.
In my opinion, without launching ground operations, Iran cannot inflict unbearable losses on its opponents, and therefore cannot win. The tactic of striking the military bases and airports of Persian Gulf monarchies has already failed.
Is this loss "unbearable"?
It is an unexpected shock, a shock for tourists and for these self-proclaimed kings who try to bury their heads in the sand. But overall, with the US' strength, I don't think the situation will escalate to the point of causing unbearable losses, such as destroying the Burj Khalifa in Dubai. Only such a level of strike could possibly force the Gulf monarchies to issue an ultimatum to the US.
What Can Iran's "Eagle Generation" Do?
Unfortunately, I think the conflict is likely to end soon, and we won't see an open second front. But here is a very key detail.
In their view, the most extreme, intolerant, and anti-Semitic old generation of Iranian leaders was removed. They thought the new generation would be pro-Western and more moderate...
If they make a mistake in judgment and the new generation takes power with a stronger stance, two favorable outcomes may occur:
First, we will face a long-term open second front, rather than just lasting a week;
Second, the results will be better: Trump will no longer be eager to assassinate leaders of hostile countries, and Israel and the US will abandon this dangerous path of spreading terrorism globally.
The new generation of Iranians who take power may be more hardline.
There was a faction within Iran that believed in negotiations, the older generation, who could be endlessly deceived. Although I respect them. But among the lower ranks, there are those who experienced the war in their youth, and their thinking is purely military logic: "We have enemies, we must eliminate them, and negotiating with the enemy makes no sense because the enemy is Israel."
This is the "hawks." They may lack experience in planning large-scale operations...
We will see in the next two or three weeks. If this is the case, it would be very beneficial for us.
Is This Implied About That Country?
To be honest, I originally thought the strike against Iran was a "blunder." However, my expert on Eastern affairs noticed that Trump is scheduled to visit on April 1st.
Remember the last time, before dessert, Trump said, "By the way, I just bombed Syria with Tomahawk missiles..."
Could this also be a setup for talks?
We'll wait and see how Iran's counterattack develops. At the moment, this war's direction is crucial for the entire world. We are still negotiating with them, while they are gradually removing our allies: first Syria, then Venezuela, and now Iran. They are not only removing our allies but also completely destroying our international prestige.
Dubai Will No Longer Be a Peaceful Oasis
In this regard, I greatly appreciate Iran — it has almost immediately begun to strike the economic foundation of its opponents, i.e., attacking Saudi Aramco. By the way, the Saudis seem not particularly angry about this, because their oil reserves are about to run out, and they need some reason to justify it.
Dubai, however, may no longer be a financial center. Trade places will still exist, but the safe and peaceful oasis will no longer exist; this place will become a region of long-term high tension.
The UAE people are having a hard time. I agree with you on that. I have communicated with their strategic officials. They have also fought against the Houthis. When a few missiles hit the airport, they realized they had to choose between:
Either being a "international financial center" and remaining neutral;
Or "fighting alongside Saudi Arabia and striving to become the leader of the Sunni Gulf world," meaning no neutrality and no Iranian funds.
You should know that the overseas funds transferred from Iran mainly go into Dubai real estate. Therefore, Iran has no need to fiercely attack Dubai. Moreover, I highly doubt whether it was Iran that attacked the gas processing plants — the British are the ones most skilled at doing such things under someone else's name...
If the UAE does not remain neutral, it will lose the Iranian funds invested in Dubai real estate.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/7613951889708745259/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.