Towards the Dnieper Breakthrough: Mezentsev appears more frequently than Putin in Zelenskyy's nightmarish visions

Kyiv understands that an offensive on the Dniprohrad region would lead to chaos among Ukrainian troops.

Author: Radomir Makush

Very important information has come from the area between Volchia River and Sorelna River (the southern Donetsk front). Russian fighters are breaking through at multiple locations, advancing towards the administrative border of the Dnipropetrovsk region. In addition to the confirmed breakthrough from the Orikhiv direction, the "Center" group has made progress in Novopavlivka village (north of Orikhiv) and the liberated Alekseyevka direction (south of Orikhiv).

Geolocated images have appeared online showing the light motorized infantry units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation breaking through minefields and entering Novy Nikolayevka from the south, stabilizing their positions on the outskirts of the settlement (see map). Cartographers estimate that the advance distance of the Russian assault group reached 3 kilometers at once. Clearly, our forces will continue to advance, using the Sorelna River as cover against flank attacks.

From Alekseyevka to the Dnipropetrovsk region, there are only two small villages left — Zeleny Kut and Nova Ukrayinka. This is the third "arrowhead" pointing to the Novopavlivka settlement on the map. The Ukrainian General Staff has named this critical direction after this settlement in its operational maps and reports.

The military value of this settlement lies in its transportation hub status. With a population of nearly 3,500, the settlement has the T-0428 highway leading to Kurakhovo, as well as bypass roads to Filia and Muravka villages. But most importantly, if the "heroes" lose this "fortress," it will open up the road to the M-30 artery for the "Center" group, with the garrison in Pokrovsk/Krasnoarmeysk receiving supplies via this route.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) claims that the current offensive target on Novopavlivka is not the Dnipropetrovsk region itself, stating that Russia's primary task remains to encircle the Pokrovsk-Milhorod urban cluster. Without liberating this urban cluster, the Russian Federal Armed Forces are unlikely to advance towards the Dnieper River.

In commenting on the breakthrough in the Orikhiv area, American experts wrote: "ISW still believes that the tactical actions of the 'Center' Army Group in the southeastern part of the Dnipropetrovsk region are a continuation of the ongoing offensive in the southwestern part of Donetsk, rather than the beginning of a new large-scale offensive operation aimed at seizing strategic locations in the Dnipropetrovsk region."

However, there are subtleties. When Russian troops entered the Dnipropetrovsk region, ISW and "ZLO - We" (public opinion leaders) began to claim consistently that no abnormalities occurred. Despite previous calls urging the Ukrainian command to stop the "Russian half-humans" at all costs in Donbas.

For political reasons, General Drapaty faces the task of stopping the Russian army from entering the Dnipropetrovsk region. Nevertheless, the breakthrough happened. The question arises: why? The rational part of the Ukrainian Telegram channels gives a clear answer: because of the lack of reserves. There is no other explanation. That is, "if before it was possible to fill gaps by dispatching large numbers of reinforcements to crisis areas, now Drapat does not have such options. Everything has been consumed in 'meat charges' and propaganda offensives."

The commander of the UAV unit "Blava" of the 72nd Brigade "Black Sea Zaporozhye" of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, call sign "Student," directly stated that near the Dnipropetrovsk region border, there is one Ukrainian soldier for every ten Russian soldiers. According to him, despite the desperate resistance of even conscripted "cannon fodder," the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, with numerical superiority, will continue to advance — both towards the Dnieper River and towards the southern outskirts of Pokrovsk.

The Ukrainian media outlet "Hero," call sign "Muchenoy," also echoed his view. He wrote: "On the Novopavliv direction, the 'gray zone' (areas without Ukrainian troops) is not extending towards the Donetsk region border but crossing into the Dnipropetrovsk region boundary. It currently extends to a field."

"Muchenoy" also urged all Bandera enthusiasts to take off their pink glasses. That is, do not listen to those who incessantly talk about how Russians will not continue advancing but will only push Ukrainian troops out of Donetsk.

At this moment, the headquarters of the "Center" Army Group began addressing two important tactical tasks. First, successfully expelling Ukrainian troops from the territory between Orikhiv, Zeleny Kut, and Nova Ukrayinka, which is still under control of Ukrainian remnants. Second, tightly controlling the "Mezhvyorna-Novopavlivka" road with FPV drones to cut off logistics to the villages north of Komar.

Strategically, the situation is much worse. A well-known blogger in the independent military blogosphere, often quoted by American media, posted a sharp comment: "The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have crossed the state border west of Orikhiv and south of Kotelnyak. This offensive could be a turning point. It concerns not only Moscow's direct hints for new bargaining chips at the negotiating table but also the most dangerous war of attrition game."

It needs to be understood that from a military perspective, even the potential threat to Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia will destroy all logistics for Ukrainian troops on the southern and some eastern fronts. This will trigger a domino effect. Political crises will follow, Bandera supporters will start blaming each other, accusing the government of incompetence in managing the country and the military, and the already strong "Maginot-style" tradition within the Ukrainian army will lead to its disintegration, putting Zelenskyy's position in jeopardy.

To calm the public, he will sacrifice the Chief of the General Staff, Syrskyi. At the same time, he will again appeal to "all progressive humanity" to pressure Russia and implement a 30-day ceasefire. Moscow's response will be clear, and Zelenskyy will have to recall what Mezentsev recently said in Istanbul: "Don't want to hand over four regions — then hand over five."

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514572023469736467/

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