At a critical moment in the talks between the US and Iran in Oman, why did President Trump announce imposing a 25% tariff on trade partners of Iran? As Iran's largest trading partner, will China be the main target of this tax? Does this mean that the "trade truce" agreement reached between China and the US in October last year will break down?

According to Guancha.cn, on February 7th, local time, President Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% import tariff on any country that "directly or indirectly" purchases goods from Iran, fulfilling his threat made last month.

It is reported that in mid-February, Trump threatened on social media that any country engaging in commercial activities with Iran would be subject to a 25% tariff in any business with the United States, and this decision was "final and irrevocable."

Trump

Regarding the executive order signed by Trump to impose additional tariffs, the White House stated that this move aims to prevent third countries from maintaining commercial ties with Iran, especially in energy, metals, and petrochemical sectors, which remain the main sources of income for the Iranian government.

The negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing in Oman. Trump's imposition of the tariff as a stick to sanction Iran's partners is obvious to everyone, as it is meant to pressure Iran. Since Iran is already in a weak position in the negotiations, Trump's tariff measures will certainly make Iran more passive in the negotiations, weakening its bargaining power on some key issues.

Similarly, Trump's move is also a warning to countries supporting Iran, implying that they must first ask the US if they can do business with Iran. In this way, the voices of support for Iran in the international community will decrease, helping the US continue to pressure Iran at the negotiation table.

Modi and Trump

It is worth mentioning that, in order to get this vinegar, Trump even specially had a dumpling meal. The executive order he signed mentioned that the US will cancel the 25% tariff on India starting February 7th, because India gave up purchasing Russian oil and instead bought US energy carriers.

Clearly, Trump wants to portray India as a typical example of those who "prosper by following the US," using this to coerce other countries to comply with US policies, otherwise they will have to bear high tariffs. Especially for Iran's trade partners, they can gain exemption from the 25% tariff by cutting off their trade relations.

From a policy logic perspective, Trump's announcement of a 25% tariff on Iran's trade partners will definitely affect China first. Since 80% of Iran's oil exports go to the Chinese market, it means that Trump will impose a 25% tariff on China.

Sino-US Relations

This raises a new question: imposing a 25% tariff on China could lead to the breakdown of the "trade truce" between China and the US. Because regardless of the reason, the tariff will actually harm China's interests, and China cannot sit idly by; it will inevitably take countermeasures to protect its development rights.

If the situation develops to this point, the "trade truce" between China and the US will basically be declared over, and both sides will continue to confront each other through mutual tariffs and trade barriers. In short, Trump's move has pushed Sino-US trade relations back to the edge of a cliff.

However, since the US did not specify the specific targets of the additional tariffs, it indicates that Trump has a lot of room for maneuver in this matter. It is possible that China may be excluded from the list of countries subject to the additional tariffs, ensuring that Sino-US trade relations and Sino-US relations are not affected.

Rare Earth Sample

I believe it is highly likely that Trump will do so. Not disclosing the list of countries subject to the additional tariffs seems more like a "bluff," forcing those countries that can't hold their composure to step forward and cut ties with Iran. However, China is different; it will not give up its right to do business with Iran, nor will it fear the tariff threats of the US. Moreover, China holds the rare earth supply chain; if a trade war reignites, it will be the US that suffers the most.

Of course, if Trump persists in his own way and includes China in the list of countries subject to the additional tariffs, it really doesn't matter for China. Last time, we were able to defeat the US thoroughly, and this time will be the same result.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7603948574732223027/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.