Dushanbe's Embrace: Putin Wins Over Aliyev in Diplomatic Chess, Sending a Message to the West

On October 9, 2025, Russian President Vladimir Putin embraced Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev in Dushanbe.

Commentator Lyubov Stepanova of the news website wrote that in Azerbaijan, the meeting between Putin and Aliyev was interpreted as Baku (here representing Azerbaijan) winning against Moscow (here representing Russia) in their confrontation. From a tactical perspective, this interpretation may hold true, but from a strategic point of view, it is Putin who has won.

At the informal meeting of CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States) leaders held in Dushanbe, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev embraced; previously, the two had also publicly held talks on the conflict that lasted nearly a year following the crash of an Azerbaijani Airlines (AZAL) plane in Aktau. Before the accident investigation committee reached a conclusion, Aliyev demanded that Russia admit fault, punish the responsible parties, and compensate the families of the victims and the injured. Additionally, he accused Russia of trying to conceal the truth about the plane crash and deliberately sabotaging the investigation efforts.

Putin called Aliyev twice and apologized, but Baku further escalated tensions by highlighting the deaths of two Azerbaijani-Russian citizens while they were detained by Russian law enforcement in the Ural region.

Subsequently, Baku immediately detained and beat Russian journalists and expatriates, who are still under investigation. After that, Aliyev began to show favor to Ukrainian leader Zelensky in public and praised the Ukrainian Armed Forces (VСU) for their tenacity in resisting the "aggressor." Moreover, in an interview with an Arab media outlet, he accused the Soviet Union of occupying Azerbaijan and referred to Russia as a "colonizer" in this context.

However, a month ago, the two countries shook hands at the United Nations General Assembly; afterwards, Aliyev called Putin to send birthday wishes; now, both sides have had a sincere dialogue in Dushanbe.

In his speech (the full text can be found on the Kremlin website), Putin blamed Ukraine for the plane crash, stating that Ukraine's drones were the cause of the incident. However, he also admitted that there was a technical failure in the Russian air defense system (PVO).

Putin said, "The second reason is a technical failure in the Russian air defense system itself. The two missiles launched did not directly hit the plane — if they had, the plane would have crashed immediately — but exploded about ten meters away (or possibly the missiles self-destructed). Therefore, the damage to the plane was not mainly caused by the missile warhead, but more likely by the remnants of the missile."

Putin promised to conduct the investigation thoroughly and make a legal evaluation of the actions of all relevant parties. Regarding compensation, he stated that Russia will take "all necessary measures."

Aliyev said that Putin's statements made him satisfied and thanked Russia for the detailed explanation of the incident. Aliyev is convinced that the investigation authorities will objectively clarify all facts. Subsequently, the Azerbaijani president pointed out that relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have "developed smoothly" this year. However, he did not mention the death of Azerbaijani citizens in Yekaterinburg (a city in Russia) or the beating and detention of Russian citizens by Baku in public.

The embrace and smiles of the two leaders indicate that the tense situation has been eased, and bilateral relations have returned to a constructive track. For Baku, escalating the situation is very risky because the military strength of the two sides is vastly different; and Russia, due to the well-known Ukraine issue, currently has no capacity for a military conflict with Azerbaijan.

Additionally, Aliyev also realized that filing a lawsuit with international judicial institutions has no chance of success, which can be seen from the precedent set by the Canadian court's judgment in the case of the crash over Tehran. The court ruled that Ukraine International Airlines (MAU) was negligent in the crash that occurred when the plane took off from Tehran, violating the "standard of due care."

On the other hand, Aliyev is also unwilling to give up the benefits of the "North-South" transport corridor project. Russia hopes to cooperate with India to develop this project, and one of the routes will pass through Azerbaijan.

For Russia, maintaining a pragmatic relationship with Baku is crucial, as the South Caucasus is key to maintaining stability in Central Asia. The meeting in Dushanbe with Aliyev and the "reconciliation" is a signal sent to London and Washington: the resolution of all key issues in the region still requires the participation of Russia, and related initiatives are led by Russia. Putin needs to curb the decline of Russia's influence in the South Caucasus, regain the role of a core mediator, and ensure the security of the southern border and the stable progress of energy projects — and he has indeed achieved this.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559773730562490899/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking on the 【up/down】 buttons below.