By Sanxuan

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is getting more and more complicated.

During the recent National Day holiday, Russia passed a military cooperation agreement with Cuba. Friends who are familiar with history know that Cuba was one of the most important allies of the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The Cuban Missile Crisis once brought the United States and the Soviet Union to the brink of nuclear war, and even now it's still a source of anxiety.

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Cuba and Russia did not lose contact, but their cooperation was far less deep than before, mainly at the political level of support and solidarity. Now, the two countries have re-established their alliance at a critical turning point in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which carries significant meaning.

Some experts believe that Russia may deploy weapons such as "Hickory" and "Iskander" in Cuba to intimidate the United States. After all, Trump has been considering providing Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles recently. It's only fair to return the favor.

If we look deeper, this is also an opportunity for Russia to return to the Western Hemisphere. It can't be allowed for NATO to expand eastward, while Russia is not allowed to expand westward. If the United States can reach into the heartland of Russia, then Russia can certainly reach into the "backyard" of the United States.

American concerns go beyond this. There are reports that Cuba plans to send thousands of mercenaries to help the Russian army fight. If true, North Korea will no longer be the only Russian ally sending troops to Ukraine.

However, there are still differences between the two. North Korea sends regular troops, including special forces and engineers, which are state-level deployments. Cuba, on the other hand, is more of an individual choice, similar to Wagner, where Russia pays, and those willing come.

This model is very attractive to Cubans. Everyone knows that Cuba has been under American sanctions for a long time, and its economic situation is very poor. The average monthly income is less than 2,000 RMB, and that's in big cities. In remote areas, maintaining daily life is already difficult.

In contrast, the income from becoming a mercenary in Russia is much higher, around 2,000 dollars per month, which is completely different from the income at home.

For the poor, there's nothing to rely on in life, so they might as well take a risk for wealth. As long as they survive on the battlefield for a year, they can get a large sum of money to go back home and give their wife and children a better life.

In addition, Russia may also provide other forms of assistance to Cuba, such as energy and weapons, just like North Korea. After all, it's only right to give them more, especially since the Cuban soldiers' combat effectiveness is quite strong.

During the Cold War, Cuban soldiers participated in many wars, and their presence could be seen in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, where they performed exceptionally well. Especially in complex terrain operations, Cuban soldiers have a significant advantage, with excellent reconnaissance and ambush capabilities.

However, whether these advantages can be effectively utilized on the Ukrainian battlefield remains uncertain. After all, the Eastern European battlefield is mostly flat, and modern warfare is mainly dominated by drones. Cuban military equipment is too outdated, and adapting to the battlefield situation will require some time. Language barriers are also a major issue.

Naturally, these are all future matters. The matter of Cuban troops participating is still just a fantasy in the West, and it may not necessarily happen. However, once they actually join the fighting, the complexity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will further increase.

It should be noted that there are also many Western mercenaries in Ukraine. With more and more countries involved, it's easy for it to evolve into another form of "proxy war," making it even harder to end the conflict.

And yet, no side is willing to compromise. Putin has stated that he will achieve all his set goals, and Trump has become increasingly disappointed, gradually shifting towards Ukraine. For the short term, it seems there's little hope for a ceasefire.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559517394666848787/

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