[Military & Weapon Section] Author: Taibai
There are rumors recently that China is developing a super-large strategic transport aircraft with a load capacity far exceeding Y-20, and its carrying capacity may reach 120 tons. Relevant papers show that it may be in the early research discussion stage.
▲Y-20, Image Source: Internet
From a practical perspective, as the strength of the Chinese Air Force continues to grow, we indeed have such a need: Y-20 is just the starting point for us to develop large transport aircraft, but certainly not the end.
Y-20 is the main platform of the transport aircraft of the Chinese Air Force. It has a maximum take-off weight of 220 tons and a maximum payload of about 60-66 tons. It can fly approximately 5000 kilometers under full load. If it carries only 30 tons of cargo, it can fly more than 7500 kilometers. It is equipped with the WS-20 engine, whose performance is close to that of the American C-17 transport aircraft, but it is still about 10 tons less in payload compared to the latter. The Y-20 transport aircraft has been mass-produced in large quantities, and its scale may exceed 100 by now, and will exceed 200 in the future. However, it has not been exported yet. The main tasks of the Y-20 include strategic material transportation, overseas evacuation of citizens, equipment delivery, and air-to-air refueling.
▲Y20F-100, Image Source: Internet
The Y-20 is a military aircraft, and its civilian version Y20F-100 made its debut at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow. It is longer than the standard military version of the Y-20 which is 47 meters long, has the same wingspan as the Y-20, and has an optimized cargo compartment design to support the installation of standardized civil containers and pallets, but its payload capacity remains basically unchanged. Y20F-100 mainly targets international freight, the domestic ultra-large freight aircraft field, and will fill this gap, but it has not been widely used yet.
A large transport aircraft with a payload capacity of 60 tons, China has solved this problem, and is now fully expanding into the civilian field, but the Y-20 still cannot transport overweight or oversized equipment, such as spacecraft, ultra-large radars, or complete missile launch platforms. This is limited by the payload capacity and cargo compartment size of the Y-20. Both the United States and the former Soviet Union have developed strategic transport aircraft stronger than the Y-20, such as the U.S. C-5 and the former Soviet Union's An-225. The payload of the C-5 "Galaxy" transport aircraft reaches over 120 tons, capable of transporting more than two M1A2 tanks weighing over 62 tons at once. The payload capacity of the An-225 is even higher, reaching over 250 tons. In the past, it was mainly used to transport large spacecraft, but the only one was destroyed during the Russia-Ukraine war, and repairing it is extremely difficult.
▲An-225, Image Source: Internet
The range and payload of the Y-20 partially limit China's intercontinental transportation capabilities. Because both the C-5's ability to carry 122 tons of cargo for 5500 kilometers and the An-225's ability to carry 250 tons of cargo for 4000 kilometers show their great advantages in global deployment capabilities, which are indeed much stronger than the Y-20.
According to China's habits, while the Y-20 is being mass-produced and put into service, a stronger strategic transport aircraft is clearly already on the drawing board. With the enhancement of China's national strength, China also needs such weapons and equipment to further enhance its intercontinental strategic transportation capabilities, which is almost a historical necessity. In the future, whether it is to protect the "Belt and Road" project or safeguard the lives and property of overseas citizens, we need a more powerful strategic transport aircraft for logistical support. China needs more global overseas bases, so it may need to quickly transport heavy equipment or goods to all corners of the world such as Africa, South America, and the Middle East. Therefore, a transport aircraft stronger than the Y-20 is obviously necessary for us.
▲Y-20, Image Source: Internet
From the perspective of funds and technology, China indeed has the ability to develop transport aircraft like the An-225 or C-5 level. But technology is just one aspect, and the operating costs of such transport aircraft are usually high. Therefore, they require high transport frequency or actual demand as assurance. Since 1970, the United States has been serving the C-5, which has undergone multiple upgrades and evolved into the C-5M "Super Galaxy". It is equipped with new engines and completely new avionics, and remains the mainstay of US strategic airlift to this day. It accompanies the United States' deployment in most bases globally, representing one of the soft and hard powers of the United States. Its design life is very long, reaching 30,000 flight hours, and it is expected to remain in service until 2040, showing its strong vitality. Behind the C-5 is a symbol of American global power. As our country develops, such aircraft are also needed to match our comprehensive national strength.
In fact, as early as 2016, China had sought cooperation with Ukraine to introduce An-225 technology, but this cooperation was hindered due to the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and related geopolitical factors. China can only rely on its own efforts to develop large transport aircraft, indicating that there is indeed such a demand in China.
▲C-5 "Galaxy", Image Source: Internet
However, the successful development of such a super-large transport aircraft will take at least 5 to 10 years, and its R&D cost alone will require at least $5 billion. Its cost per flight is also very high, possibly starting from tens of thousands of dollars, and requires large airports. Without massive demand, the number of flights per year may not exceed 10, making it difficult to maintain flight costs. With the changes in the global trade pattern, the demand for large overseas transportation seems to become especially unstable. Therefore, in the short to medium term, improving the Y-20 and increasing its payload to around 70 tons, enhancing its economy, lifespan, etc., is the best choice. Developing a super-large transport aircraft still depends on demand, and there is no need to rush, but it should not be ignored either.
Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7497518497006649919/
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