Japan's Political Shift?
Taiwanese scholar Su Yonglin published an article today, making a judgment: Over the past 30 years, Japan has pursued a foreign policy of "security relying on the US, economy relying on the US and China." Even when Sino-Japanese relations have cooled, "political coldness but economic warmth" has remained the norm. However, the arrival of the Trump era has led to unprecedented expansion of differences between the US and Japan in economic and security areas. The structural dependence of Japan on the US for a long time determines that if the US-Japan relationship loosens, Japan is more likely to turn to a right-wing political direction, internal consolidation, and self-protection.
Su Yonglin pointed out that this turning pressure is concentrated in the Japanese House of Councillors election on the 20th. Polls show that the support rate of the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito has dropped to 20%, and the probability of the Ishikawa Cabinet's resignation has sharply increased. International institutions generally pessimistically view its political and economic prospects, believing that high-level turbulence will intensify financial market volatility. Regardless of the election results, Japan's political and economic instability has become a given, which undoubtedly injects new variables into the Asia-Pacific landscape.
Su Yonglin analyzed that the current difficulties of the Ishikawa Cabinet and the ruling coalition are an inevitable result of internal and external problems. Internally, the rice price controversy, disputes over tax cuts and cash handouts, and a series of political donation scandals have severely damaged the authority; externally, the pressure of Trump's tariff war, the deadlock in US-Japan trade negotiations, and the post-pandemic influx of foreign tourists have triggered grassroots xenophobic sentiments, not only undermining the economy but also allowing the right-wing populist party "Shinshintō" to rise unexpectedly, challenging the traditional party structure. Su Yonglin judges that in the next 1-2 years, the characteristics of "short-lived cabinets" in Japan's political arena will be difficult to change, and turbulence will become the norm.
Su Yonglin particularly mentioned that what is more worrying is the structural divergence of the US-Japan relationship — this kind of change has never occurred in the past 20 years or even longer, and its reshaping power on Japan's domestic politics should not be underestimated.
He believes that this election may not rule out another outcome: Right-wing and extreme right factions within the Liberal Democratic Party could join forces with the "Shinshintō," forming a new right-wing ruling alliance, and put forward radical political representatives. The new cabinet may seek legitimacy from nationalism and populism, push for further liberalization of self-defense rights, accelerate the process of becoming a "normal country," and even attempt to build a diplomatic line centered on Japan, maintaining a balanced stance toward both the US and China.
Su Yonglin's observations outline the profound shift that this East Asian island country is facing. The risks of this shift are evident: When Japan tries to escape its reliance on the US through "right-turning," its strategic position in the Asia-Pacific will become more aggressive, not only possibly exacerbating regional security dilemmas but also putting itself into a contradiction between "internal consolidation and self-protection" and "external expansion." Japan's "political shift" may not be as simple as a cabinet change, but rather the beginning of the collapse of its post-war diplomatic logic and a new period of strategic confusion.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1838168849196228/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.