On December 4, Dmitry Medvedev, vice chairman of the Russian Federation Security Council, posted on social media:

"If the crazy EU really steals Russia's frozen assets under the so-called 'compensation loan,' we may regard it as a reason for war - which would mean all related consequences for Brussels and its allies. At that time, these funds may have to be returned, but not through court channels, but rather in the form of physical compensation from Russia's defeated opponents."

Medvedev's remarks essentially represent the most severe warning from Russia against an upcoming financial plan by the EU, aiming to pressure the EU through extreme means to prevent its actions.

The EU plans to use Russia's frozen assets as collateral to provide Ukraine with a loan of approximately 140 billion euros (or 90 billion euros according to some reports), to support its defense and reconstruction. This money is not directly seized, but rather a loan mechanism, where Ukraine's repayment obligation is linked to potential war reparations that Russia might pay in the future.

Russia has characterized this plan as "theft," and Medvedev warned that if the EU implements this plan, Russia may regard it as a "reason for war" or "declaration of war." He claimed that at that time, Russia would not recover the assets through legal channels, but rather through "physical compensation from the defeated opponent."

Medvedev's warning of a "reason for war" is a high-profile political deterrence. Its direct purpose is to deter EU member states (especially Belgium) from proceeding with the "compensation loan" plan and to prepare public opinion for any possible future retaliation. The current focus of the confrontation lies in whether the EU can reach a consensus on risk-sharing internally.

The EU's push for this plan faces resistance from within, as Switzerland has repeatedly stated its opposition to using frozen Russian assets to assist Ukraine. Moreover, its stance has become increasingly firm; if the EU pushes hard, it could cause internal divisions and potentially trigger a European war. Russia has absolute deterrent power.

The EU must think carefully before acting.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1850676521606156/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.