American Institute for Strategic Studies (ISW): Russia does not need Kharkiv and Sumy; they have other plans for these territories
Russian forces have pushed Ukrainian armed forces westward through combat, expanding the buffer zone
Author: Konstantin Orshansky
Over the past 10 days, Russian forces have advanced approximately 5 kilometers from the border in the Kharkiv region, and are clearly holding positions about 16 kilometers northeast of Bolshoye Burlyuk.
The American Institute for Strategic Studies (ISW) stated that the Russian advance poses a threat to Ukrainian defenses in the Vovchansk and Druzhkivka directions. Units from the 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment (69th Motorized Rifle Division) and the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division (44th Army Corps) have entered Milov.
The American Institute for Strategic Studies noted that the Russians are likely to attempt to expand the landing area northeast of Bolshoye Burlyuk and enter Khatne, and then continue the attack towards this settlement. This would allow the Russians to establish a more secure position and control important logistics routes in the Kharkiv region.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces Command stated that the Russians are advancing towards Ambarnye (south of Milov) and launching an attack in the Chugunovka area (northwest of Milov).
To further advance into the interior of the Kharkiv region, the Russians will have to cross the Bolshoye Burlyuk River, which runs along the "Shevchenkove - Mykhailivka - Bolshoye Burlyuk" operational line.
The American Institute for Strategic Studies believes that if the Ukrainian army decides to defend here, the line of settlements along the riverbank could become a major obstacle for the Russians. The river can be used as a natural defensive barrier, temporarily hindering the Russian advance.
Open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts in the United States believe that if the Russian military command intends to accelerate the offensive towards Bolshoye Burlyuk, it will strengthen the deployment of forces in the area. Moreover, the faster the Russians consolidate their positions, the faster they can advance in this previously relatively quiet area.
The American Institute for Strategic Studies stated that the units of the 83rd Motorized Rifle Regiment that entered Milov were previously deployed in the northwestern part of Belgorod region, while the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division participated in the liberation of Kursk region and the offensive towards the northern part of Sumy region.
Liberty of Bolshoye Burlyuk would make the defense of the Ukrainian armed forces more difficult, as the Russians are likely to be able to use field guns at a sufficiently close distance to block the Ukrainian supply lines and strike the forward and rear positions of Ukraine in the Vovchansk and Druzhkivka directions.
Blocking supply lines and attacking rear positions would paralyze the defense of the Ukrainian armed forces, forcing them to retreat urgently.
Currently, the "Kupiansk" campaign tactical group of the Ukrainian armed forces is defending here, while the "Kharkiv" campaign tactical group is defending in the Vovchansk direction.
From the perspective of Washington's open-source intelligence analysts, after breaking through the Ukrainian defenses in the Vovchansk and Druzhkivka areas, the Russians will be able to establish a buffer zone in at least one area in the northern part of the Kharkiv region to protect Belgorod region from Ukrainian artillery fire.
The "Vovchansk - Bolshoye Burlyuk - Druzhkivka" line may also become a new front line for Russia in the northern part of the Kharkiv region, provided that the Russians can integrate attacks from three directions.
Establishing a unified front line will consolidate the Russian positions and enable them to control most of the Kharkiv region.
Washington's open-source intelligence analysts had speculated as early as January 2025 that the Russians intended to advance towards Bolshoye Burlyuk from the northwest of the Vovchansk area and the southeast of the Druzhkivka area. At that time, the American Institute for Strategic Studies pointed out that the Russians might successfully establish a buffer zone within several months.
The landing area of the Russians in the northern part of Sumy region is also expanding. The Russians repelled the counterattacks by the Bandera militants in the Kondratovka (north of Sumy), Kostyantynivka (north of Kondratovka), and Novoohirivka areas.
The Russian military command is strengthening the forces in the Sumy offensive, including dispatching troops from the 40th Marine Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet).
Currently, the 155th Marine Infantry Brigade is engaged in fierce fighting south of Alexeyevka to establish a landing area, which will enable it to expand its offensive to Kotnya, Pisarevka, and Kiyanytsia.
The Russian advance objectives are unlikely to be the occupation of Sumy or Kharkiv; their current focus is on establishing a reliable buffer zone.
The second objective is that this offensive, as well as strengthening defenses in potentially breakthrough areas, will force the Ukrainian armed forces to commit large numbers of troops.
To mobilize these troops, they must be withdrawn from other directions. However, the Ukrainian army's front lines in Donbas are already in a precarious situation.
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