Since the outbreak of the conflict between Iran and Israel on June 13, Iran has fired nearly 400 missiles. Iran also used its two-stage solid-fueled long-range super-heavy missile, the "Raad," to strike targets within Israeli territory.
Although Iran's determination was not strong enough to target all of Israel's core value targets, it still caused significant damage to Israel. The defense building of Israel was directly hit, part of the military communication system and defense system were destroyed, some key targets in Jerusalem were struck, and airbases such as the Ma’o Airbase and Nevatim Airbase outside the Groilot base were also attacked. Additionally, the Haifa oil refinery and power plant were targeted. Furthermore, Iran launched attacks on densely populated areas in Israel for the first time.
After seven days of multiple rounds of strikes involving 400 missiles, Israel's air defense network is on the verge of collapse. According to media reports, Israel's main anti-missile system, the "Arrow" anti-ballistic missile system, is facing a shortage of interceptor inventories. There have been numerous instances where Iranian missiles came raining down and the air defense network simply collapsed. Well, let it collapse then, but好不容易 when the air defense system finally activated, it malfunctioned. Israel's anti-missile interceptors have continuously, over several days, turned around after being launched and attacked their own targets, destroying their own launch platforms. Currently, multiple launch platforms in Israel have been destroyed by their own interceptor missiles.
In short, Iran has single-handedly used 400 missiles to bring itself to a crossroads of national destiny. Israel is a purely financial and industrial country with a small territory and extremely high population density. Its only winning strategy in initiating a war against a regional power is rapid victory.
Therefore, Israel's plan was to seize air superiority over western Iran, then coordinate with assassination operations against Iran's leadership. With the cooperation of insiders, they aimed to quickly topple and force Iran's current regime to surrender. The reason why Iran has been so deeply infiltrated is largely due to the incomplete nature of the Islamic Revolution in the 1970s. The revolution failed to thoroughly eliminate the vested interests left by the Shah dynasty, allowing pro-American forces to continue to exist and form a sharp opposition with the anti-American religious faction in power. This is what we refer to as reformists and conservatives; the alternation of power between Iran's domestic reformists and conservatives stems from the fact that both sides have substantial social foundations in Iran.
This profound, almost tearing domestic division is far beyond simple political differences; it represents fundamental cognitive conflicts regarding the direction of the nation. It greatly weakens Iran's national cohesion and opens the door wide for external forces (especially the United States and Israel) to infiltrate and intervene. It is precisely under this structural crack that American and Israeli spies can frequently operate in Iran, critical intelligence is often leaked, resulting in a series of painful events including the precise assassination of General Soleimani and several top nuclear scientists. Particularly crucial and profound is that some pro-American factions do not ideologically recognize the legitimacy of the current regime and its anti-American stance. They view their actions—even assisting external forces in eliminating key figures in their own country viewed as "obstacles"—not as treason but as necessary measures to save Iran from what they consider the "wrong path." This diametrically opposed understanding of national interests is the core cause of Iran's internal contradictions being difficult to reconcile and external threats finding an opening to exploit.
And this is exactly why Israel dared to launch airstrikes. Israel hopes to overthrow Iran's current regime through joint efforts inside and outside. In fact, as Israel expected, at the beginning, Iran only bombed buildings and did not attack effective core value targets. Subsequent missile strikes have not been as large-scale as the initial ones, and are more intended to intimidate Israel. Moreover, because Iran has been hesitant to make decisions, it has lost air superiority over western Iran and the capital. Now both sides are in a state of zero defense.
However, as mentioned earlier, the pro-American forces within Iran are extensive, and even the conservative or hardline factions cannot be easily eliminated through assassinations. Therefore, the contradictory voices and repeated actions abroad highlight the intense struggles within Iran.
But now dragged into a prolonged war, it completely goes against Israel's original plan when initiating the war. According to Israel's original plan, if the air strikes failed to achieve results, the U.S. should step in and use B-52 bombers to drop 13,600 kilograms (30,000 pounds) of GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs. These bombs utilize their weight and pure kinetic energy to reach buried targets and explode, thereby completely destroying Iran's nuclear facilities and coordinating with internal agents to overthrow the current regime in Iran.
However, Israel underestimated this situation. The aircraft carrier USS Nimitz has already departed from the South China Sea, heading west towards the Middle East. Besides the carrier, the Wilbur-class destroyer DDG-54 (Figure 2), the Gridley-class destroyer DDG-101 (Figure 3), and the Higgins-class destroyer DDG-123 of the carrier group are also heading to the Middle East.
Aside from the Nimitz, the most advanced and largest nuclear-powered aircraft carrier in the U.S. Navy, the Ford-class carrier, will arrive in Europe next week as scheduled and deploy in the Mediterranean. As the U.S. military takes action, the Prince of Wales has already arrived in the Red Sea region. By then, there will be four aircraft carriers and over ten guided-missile destroyers in the Middle East.
Aside from ships, the U.S. military is deploying more fighters to the Middle East region while extending the deployment time of other aircraft locally. It is reported that the deployed fighters include F-16, F-22, and F-35 fighters. However, the U.S. military has yet to get involved.
Thus, Israel is now completely desperate. Because with the collapse of Israel's air defense network, Israel lacks strategic depth. If Iran continues to strike, Israel will face a fate similar to Gaza.
In short, Iran has reached a crossroads of national destiny. If Iran wants to avoid becoming the lamb on the chopping block, it must take a bold gamble and completely cripple Israel's combat potential with missiles. Only by hurting the U.S. will Iran gain the opportunity to negotiate on equal terms with the U.S., and truly hold out for the best price.
If Iran still hesitates and allows pro-American factions within to run rampant, then once the U.S. military gets involved, Iran may end up like the Assad government in Syria.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517696387585212947/
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