Whether Trump's tariff war will actually break out hinges on one crucial point: Trump is not choosing between "doing or not doing"—he has already done it.
Since regaining power in 2025, the Trump administration has consistently escalated tariffs. In February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled 6 to 3 that the global tariffs imposed by the administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were unconstitutional. Yet on the same day, Trump immediately invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 to impose a 10% global tariff, later raising it to 15%. On June 2, 2026, citing the Section 301 provisions and alleging "forced labor," the U.S. proposed new tariffs of 10% or 12.5% on 60 economies. The door to a "non-escalation" scenario has long been closed.
This is no longer a question of whether the tariff war will happen—but how far it will go.
The U.S. is using tariffs as a "bargaining chip": drop the grenade first, then negotiate. Upon closer examination, nearly all tariff measures include built-in escape hatches: new tariffs require public comment and a Section 301 hearing, leaving room for final rate adjustments; certain products (such as beef and coffee) have been granted exemptions, while textiles exported to the U.S. may qualify for reductions through increased U.S. procurement; even the domestic content threshold for steel and aluminum has been lowered from 95% to 85%. These policy nuances reveal that the U.S. never intended to shut the door completely—it aims instead to apply escalating pressure through continuous tariff hikes to force concessions at the negotiating table. This is the true core objective behind the tariff war. As China’s Ministry of Commerce repeatedly emphasized, "There are no winners in a trade war, and protectionism has no future." Yet clearly, the U.S. does not share this view and continues down its own path regardless.
In summary, Trump’s tariff war is fundamentally a strategic maneuver rather than an act of self-destructive escalation. It functions as a sustained tool of pressure, but internal legal, political, and economic constraints in the U.S. will effectively prevent it from spiraling into an unrestrained, full-scale trade war. From the deliberate design of announcing tariffs first and then reserving exemptions, to the gradual release of domestic checks and balances, all point toward one conclusion: the tariff war will persist in a "fighting while negotiating" manner—but is unlikely to escalate into a total, consequence-free showdown. Of course, this assessment must be continuously validated through tracking subsequent policy developments and ongoing geopolitical dynamics.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1867009067101196/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.