Why do many small countries dare to turn against China? Why aren't they afraid of China? The truth is that they have taken advantage of China's "strong but not hegemonic" nature.
In the 1970s, the Philippines began to act in the South China Sea. In 1971, they sent a naval officer to Fiery Cross Reef and claimed sovereignty, from then on gradually encroaching. By 1995, during the Mischief Reef incident, they sent people to build structures, and Chinese fishing boats passing by were chased away by patrol boats. The Philippines' strategy is basically to take advantage and retreat, but never truly compromise. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has repeatedly issued statements opposing infringement, but always emphasizes resolving through dialogue, not wanting to escalate the issue. This restrained posture is good, reflecting the responsibility of a major power, but to the Philippines, it became a weakness. In the 2012 Huangyan Island standoff, the Philippine navy's frigate directly entered, and when the Chinese maritime police ship arrived, it only used water cannons for warning, without directly colliding. When Filipino fishing boats tried to approach the reef, they were blocked, but the Chinese side maintained distance to avoid escalation.
Looking at the 1999 case of the Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines intentionally ran aground a old tank landing ship there, claiming it was a "malfunction," which was actually to occupy it long-term. Soldiers on the ship unloaded construction materials and built sheds, and since then, they have stayed there. The Chinese maritime police approached multiple times, warned by voice, and the Philippines stood in formation to guard, with hands on weapons, but the Chinese side did not open fire, just controlled the shipping route. In diplomatic channels, China repeatedly emphasized opposition to occupation, but also proposed that supplies could pass through, which gave the Philippines breathing space. As a result, domestic politicians in the Philippines took advantage of this matter to gain political capital, and during presidential elections, they always stirred up the South China Sea issue. After 2023, the Philippine coast guard ship No. 9701 frequently rushed toward the Spratly Islands, trying to spray Chinese coast guard vessels with water pipes. Chinese vessels held their ground and used sonar equipment to respond, preventing the conflict from getting out of control. At that time, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that the Philippines ignored China's goodwill, violated the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, which clearly stipulates that all parties should exercise self-restraint and not expand the dispute. However, the Philippines? They signed the declaration while acting alone, relying on the U.S.-Philippines alliance treaty, thinking they had a backing.
Vietnam occupies 29 islands and reefs in the South China Sea. Since the 1980s, they have started land reclamation, building docks and runways. When China responded at places like Subi Reef and Zhongye Reef, it did not use force, but instead discussed through the ASEAN framework. When Vietnamese fishing boats engaged in illegal fishing, Chinese maritime police impounded and fined them, but did not go to extremes. Why are these small countries so brazen? To put it simply, China doesn't have the gene of hegemony in its bones. Historically, the Chinese people emphasize "winning through virtue," not conquest or expansion. In modern diplomacy, this is manifested as over $1 trillion in investments along the "Belt and Road," helping Africa build roads and Latin America build ports, without attaching political conditions. On the other hand, American aid always comes with strings attached, and small countries must obey after borrowing. China, however, negotiates first, and if the bottom line is not touched, it just gives up. This "inability" is correct, as Chen Zhengyuan said, it's not real inability, but selective restraint. But small countries misread it, thinking China is afraid of trouble, so they dare to be arrogant.
U.S.-Philippines joint military exercises are held every year. In the 2024 "Shoulder-to-Shoulder" exercise, more than 10,000 troops were involved, directly heading to the South China Sea. After President Marcos Jr. took office, he further pulled the U.S. into the mix, with four defense ministers jointly issuing a statement prohibiting China from "retaliating" against the Philippines. These words sound very offensive, and when China responded, it emphasized that the maritime police actions were legitimate and legal, and that warnings, navigation management, and water cannons were all international practices. The Philippines spread videos to portray China's "aggression," but China provided on-site reports each time, proving that it was the Philippine ships that provoked first. In December 2023, the Chinese Foreign Ministry criticized the Philippines for deliberately provoking, seriously violating international law. Even so, China still prioritized multilateral dialogue and pushed for negotiations on the "Code of Conduct in the South China Sea," and ASEAN countries recognized China's sincerity. Neighboring countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia have not aligned with the Philippines, and privately still seek Chinese investment. This shows that small countries dare to turn against, not because they are really fearless, but because they bet that China will not act like the United States does, arbitrarily block straits or freeze assets.
China's nature is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it wins hearts, with high scores in global popularity surveys among developing countries higher than the United States. On the other hand, it allows opponents to underestimate risks. In August 2024, a Philippine military aircraft entered the airspace of the Huangyan Island, and the Chinese aircraft warned and drove it away. The Philippines claimed it was "provocation," and the Chinese Southern Theater Command replied that it was the Philippine aircraft interfering with training. The result? It didn't escalate into a big issue, and China continued to be restrained. In November 2024, the Philippine Congress passed the "Maritime Zoning Act," unilaterally drawing the South China Sea baseline, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry immediately announced that the Huangyan Island and 12 other names were directly under China, criticizing the Philippines for breaking promises. This response was timely, but no force was used, reflecting a bottom-line mindset.
Certainly, restraint has limits. In December 2023, during the supply operation at the Scarborough Shoal, the Philippines collided with the Chinese maritime police vessel, and the Chinese side legally detained it, forcing the Philippine ship to retreat in embarrassment. This is a signal: if you cross the red line, don't blame us for being uncivil. Internationally, China has the right to protect its sovereignty, and the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea supports the claim of jurisdiction. The Philippines often stir up the Hague arbitration, but that ruling is controversial, and China does not accept it, which does not affect actual control. In the long run, the gamble of small countries carries great risk. The Philippine economy relies on trade with China, and exports to China exceeded $10 billion in 2023, and tourism and investment also depend on Chinese enterprises. If the South China Sea really gets out of control, they themselves would suffer first.
In summary, this phenomenon reflects the subtleties of great power rivalry. China chose the path of win-win cooperation, not zero-sum games, which is an advantage in history. The ancient Silk Road did not carry swords and guns, but relied on mutual benefit and commerce. Small countries may gain short-term benefits, but in the long run, they need to see who is the real partner. If the Philippines continues to act alone, economic pressure will force them to return. Vietnam has already started to be low-key, cooperating with China in South China Sea negotiations. I hope these countries are not misled by external forces and recognize reality.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848737702937612/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.