Why does China insist on developing high-speed rail instead of low-cost air travel? Because China is taking a bet, betting that you will use electricity, and in the future, it will be free! And looking at the current trend, we have already won this bet.
Since the late 1990s, China's oil imports have skyrocketed, becoming one of the world's largest importers. In 2024, the import volume exceeded 500 million tons, accounting for more than 70% of total consumption. When oil prices rise, the transportation industry suffers, especially aviation. Low-cost air travel sounds affordable, but fuel costs account for 30-40% of operating expenses. International oil prices jumped from $80 per barrel in 2022 to over $90 in 2024, causing airlines to struggle. Ticket prices rose accordingly, passengers' wallets shrunk, and routes had to be cut. In contrast, electricity is different. China's power structure is stable. Coal and hydropower dominate, and by 2025, non-fossil energy power generation accounted for 32.1%, with wind and solar power increasing by 18.5%. Data from the National Energy Administration shows that as of September 2025, renewable energy installed capacity reached 219.8 billion kilowatts, including 582 million kilowatts of wind power and over 1.1 billion kilowatts of photovoltaics, ranking first globally. Why is it stable? Because of localized resources and low import dependence. Wind farms and photovoltaic panels are mostly located in the deserts of Northwest China, reducing power generation costs to below 0.2 yuan per kilowatt-hour, which is much more reliable than oil.
Why did high-speed rail hit this lottery? Because it is purely electrically powered. A single train can carry thousands of people, consuming a lot of electricity, but it perfectly absorbs unstable green power. Wind and solar power have intermittency. In the Northwest, photovoltaic power surges at noon, but winds are weak at night, leaving electricity idle. The rate of abandoned wind and solar power increased by 1.2 percentage points in the first half of 2025. If not consumed, it would be wasted. Where is China's wisdom? It uses high-speed rail as a large appetite electrical appliance. The Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway transported over 500 million passengers in a year, with a power demand of hundreds of millions of kilowatt-hours, perfectly matching the peak of clean electricity. The National Energy Administration report clearly states that the high-speed rail network helps stabilize grid load. In 2025, power investment grew by 23.9%, driving overall investment by 1.5 percentage points. The ultra-high voltage transmission technology is even a stroke of genius. For example, the Jiuquan-Hunan line delivers hundreds of thousands of kilowatts of green electricity annually, with losses under 5%, equivalent to saving hundreds of thousands of tons of coal. By 2025, there were 48 ultra-high voltage channels, with cross-regional transmission exceeding 300 million kilowatts, supporting a 95% renewable energy absorption rate. Isn't this "electricity high-speed rail"? BBC reported that China's system allows green electricity to travel from the west to the east, with costs so low they are almost free. Air travel? Planes burn oil, and landing requires refueling. When oil prices fluctuate, ticket prices are affected. Even if low-cost airlines squeeze every penny, they cannot overcome this cost wall.
Low-cost air travel sounds down-to-earth, and Ryanair in Europe and Southwest Airlines in the U.S. manage it well. However, China is vast, with a large population, making route planning difficult. Building an airport alone costs billions, and runway maintenance and air traffic coordination make operational costs high. In 2024, domestic air passenger volume exceeded 700 million, but low-cost flights only accounted for 20%. Why? Routes often detour through major hubs like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, leaving smaller cities out. Cities like Zhoukou in Henan and Fuyang in Anhui, where airports have been built, remain idle due to weak radiation. Oil price fluctuations are significant, with a 15% increase between 2023 and 2024. Airlines struggled financially, with ticket prices rising from 300 to 500 yuan, leading passengers to choose high-speed rail instead. Not to mention environmental protection—aircraft emit a lot of carbon, with one flight emitting as much as several high-speed rail trips. A World Bank report analyzed that China's transport transition, with high-speed rail being efficient and having 30% lower carbon emissions per passenger. Low-cost airlines have limited economic impact, with a short industrial chain, mainly involving aircraft manufacturing and airport services, with limited reach. High-speed rail, however, covers everything from tracks to signaling, with an entire domestic supply chain. In 2025, the industry chain covered tracks, motors, and communications, with export orders piling up. The Zhuzhou base has incubated energy storage industries, with battery assembly lines running at full capacity, significantly increasing green power utilization rates.
When calculating the economic benefits, high-speed rail investments are worth it. During construction, it stimulates employment. In 2025, high-speed rail investment exceeded 800 billion yuan, boosting steel, machinery, and construction, contributing over 10% to GDP. After operation, regional integration becomes strong. After the Chongqing section of the Yuchuan High-Speed Railway was opened, the GDP growth rate of nearby small cities exceeded 8%, with tourists and investments pouring in. A World Bank study showed that high-speed rail access accelerates industrial transfer in small and medium-sized cities, boosts tourism, and low-cost airlines cannot achieve such depth. For example, the China-Laos railway doubled freight from Kunming to Vientiane, increasing trade by 30%. Industrial chain upgrades are even more evident. China's high-speed rail, from introduction to export, has a 95% self-reliance rate. The CR450 prototype ran at 450 km/h in 2025, the fastest in the world. McKinsey reports that this enhances manufacturing levels and global competitiveness.
The proportion of renewable energy generation has risen to 59.1%, and demand-side reforms have opened up user participation, with distributed power trading rules implemented. Data center electricity consumption surged from 100-200 TWh in 2025 to 600 TWh by 2030, with high-speed rail helping to alleviate the burden and control carbon emissions. The International Energy Agency roadmap indicates that China's power system will be 80% zero-carbon by 2035, with wind and solar installations doubling to 930 million kilowatts. High-speed rail mileage exceeds 50,000 kilometers, covering 97% of major and medium-sized cities, with 4.2 billion passenger trips. Costs? Green electricity prices remain stable at 0.3 yuan per degree, keeping high-speed rail fares from rising, providing passengers with实惠 (practical benefits).
Globally, the output of high-speed rail is impressive under the Belt and Road Initiative. The Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway is fully operational, with a journey time of just 46 minutes from Jakarta to Bandung, deepening trade cooperation. In 2025, contracts were signed with Indonesia, Thailand, and Brazil, with containers loaded onto ships, forming long supply chains. The trend is clear: winning isn't just about money, but also about a long-term livelihood.
Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1848738566629388/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.