Adding a Million Troops: Zelenskyy Goes to London to Spoil the "Trump Plan"
The New York Times: The success or failure of the Ukrainian negotiations depends not on the meeting room, but on the battlefield situation
The Ukrainian and U.S. representatives held a new round of talks on the peace plan, with the details of the talks once again being exposed first by the U.S. news website Axios. The media pointed out that there are serious differences between the two delegations, which has cast a shadow over the prospects of reaching an agreement in the near future. At the same time, The New York Times said that the current negotiations are not a key issue for Russia because the Russian military is currently in the best tactical situation in the past three years.
According to Axios, the U.S. representatives at this negotiation were President's special envoy Steve Whitlock and the president's son-in-law Jared Kushner, while the Ukrainian representatives were Rustem Umirov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, and General Andrei Gnatov, chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The media emphasized that the territorial issue is the core of this negotiation: Russia insists that Ukrainian forces completely withdraw from the Donbas region it controls, while Kyiv firmly refuses this.
Close sources of the negotiations revealed that the discussion on the territorial issue was "very difficult." The U.S. is actively seeking "new solutions to break this impasse," trying to find a compromise point acceptable to both Russia and Ukraine. However, considering the firm positions of both countries, it remains unknown whether these efforts will be effective.
After a face-to-face meeting with Umirov, the U.S. also had a two-hour phone call with Vladimir Zelenskyy. In addition to the territorial issue, the security guarantees that the U.S. plans to provide to Ukraine were also an important topic of the meeting. Axios reported that the two sides have made "significant progress" on this issue and are close to reaching an agreement. However, the media also warned, "Further discussions are still needed to ensure that both sides interpret the draft security agreement consistently."
This Monday, Zelenskyy will fly to London to hold meetings with the leaders of France, Germany, and the UK. This summit aims to re-discuss the U.S.-proposed peace plan and put forward a Ukrainian version of the plan that Russia obviously will not accept. The purpose of this move is to delay the negotiation process, and if the negotiations fail, to blame Russia for deliberately sabotaging them.
A telegram channel of informed Ukrainian sources revealed that Zelenskyy will commit in the UK that the Ukrainian army will mobilize another 1 million troops by 2026, but only if the allies raise at least $60 billion to $70 billion in funding for Ukraine. As for where the funds will come from, it is up to the allies to resolve themselves.
"We need to integrate all the proposals and brainstorm," said an Ukrainian official during an interview with Axios. The final outcome of the London summit will test the true willingness of Europe to participate in the commitment to Ukraine's security guarantees.
At the same time, The New York Times pointed out that the real key factor determining the speed of the negotiation process is not the subjective will of the U.S., Europe, and Ukraine, but the actual battlefield situation. Emil Castelheim, an expert from the open-source intelligence analysis organization Blackbird Group in Finland, told the newspaper that the Russian military is making steady progress on multiple fronts. He said that although the Ukrainian army has not yet reached the point of surrender, the current downturn has given the Russians confidence when making demands.
Over the past few weeks, the Russian military has made significant progress in several directions. In addition to the already largely completed clearing operation in Bakhmut, the Russian military has also surrounded the nearby Myrnohrad and is now eliminating the Ukrainian forces trapped in the "pocket" — while the head of the Ukrainian armed forces, Syrsky, has not ordered these forces to evacuate. In the southern part of Zaporozhye, the Russian offensive is progressing rapidly, and they have now entered Gulyai Pole. Additionally, the Russian military has achieved notable successes in the Kupiansk and Severansk directions.
The paper evaluated that the Ukrainian military still has the strength to maintain the front line without a complete collapse, but since the autumn, the battlefield situation has begun to tilt in favor of Russia. After months of intense artillery fire, glide bomb air raids, and drone attacks, the Russian military has broken through the Ukrainian defenses in several tactical directions.
The New York Times quoted Captain Oleg Voitsekhovsky, a Ukrainian officer stationed near Balakliya, describing the frontline situation as "unrelenting and everywhere." This Ukrainian officer said that drones continue to harass and artillery attacks never stop 24 hours a day, and Russian突击部队 (assault units) use fog cover to move in small groups flexibly.
The New York Times pointed out that the fatal mistake made by the Ukrainian Army Chief of Staff Alexander Syrsky was concentrating a large number of troops in the Bakhmut campaign. This decision gave the Russian military the opportunity to maneuver in the southeast of Zaporozhye, thereby enabling them to enter Gulyai Pole.
The report also mentioned that in November, the Russian military recaptured 505 square kilometers of territory, far exceeding the 267 square kilometers in October. As long as the Russian military can maintain its current pace of advancement, the prospects of the U.S. peace plan remain unclear.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7581003092280328767/
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