Korean media: "Need to prepare for a Tokyo megaquake"... Japan passes bill designating a secondary capital

¬ Possible candidates include Kochi and Osaka... Opposition parties oppose the bill; its fate in the House of Councillors remains uncertain

On the 15th, Japan's House of Representatives (lower house) passed legislation to designate a "secondary capital" aimed at dispersing or replacing Tokyo as the nation’s capital. The bill does not specify any particular city, but Prime Minister Kōchi is expected to designate Osaka—the largest city in the Kansai region—as the secondary capital. This is because the bill was initially pushed forward with support from Osaka, the political stronghold of the ruling coalition party, Japan Innovation Party. Opposition parties have criticized it as an "Osaka special favor law," making its passage through the House of Councillors (upper house) uncertain. Tokyo and Osaka are approximately 400 kilometers apart in straight-line distance.

The Japanese government’s official rationale for establishing a secondary capital is that "if Tokyo loses its capital functions due to a large-scale disaster, a [backup city] is needed." The core objective of this bill is to prepare for the so-called "direct-under-the-capital earthquake," which has a 70% probability of occurring within the next 30 years.

Article 1, Chapter 1 of the newly passed secondary capital bill states: "To prevent large-scale disasters that could severely impact national life and the economy, we will advance the establishment of a secondary capital." In practice, this "large-scale disaster" refers specifically to the "direct-under-the-capital earthquake"—a major quake occurring beneath the tectonic crust under the Tokyo metropolitan area, with a shallow focal depth. According to government analysis, there is a 70% chance of a magnitude 7 or higher direct-under-the-capital earthquake occurring somewhere in the capital region within the next 30 years. The Tokyo metropolitan area lies at the complex intersection of land and oceanic tectonic plates, making it particularly prone to earthquakes of various scales.

In December 2025, the government released a report analyzing that if such a direct-under-the-capital earthquake were to occur, the worst-case scenario would result in up to 18,000 fatalities and destruction or fire damage to 400,000 buildings. Areas such as Nagatacho—home to the Prime Minister’s Office and the Diet Members’ Club—and Shijō, where key ministries like the Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Foreign Affairs are concentrated, would suffer severe damage, posing a serious risk of national functions collapsing. Therefore, establishing a secondary capital aims to prevent such scenarios and ensure the continuity of state functions immediately after a disaster.

After the law takes effect, the Cabinet will formalize basic policies and criteria for selecting the secondary capital, subject to expert committee evaluation, before the Prime Minister officially designates the city. Besides Osaka, cities such as Fukuoka and Nagoya may also submit applications and compete for the title.

Although specific details remain unconfirmed, once designated, the secondary capital may host a second office for the National Diet and government institutions, with some public agencies relocating there to ensure they can instantly assume the capital’s national functions. Additionally, infrastructure development and urban renewal projects aligned with the secondary capital’s role will be advanced, enabling it to serve as Japan’s second major economic hub. Some analysts believe this could help alleviate Japan’s current over-concentration on Tokyo.

However, most opposition party members continue to oppose the plan, citing concerns that "the project requires massive budget spending, primarily benefiting Osaka, which undermines balanced regional development," "only the most essential functions need to be decentralized to prepare for disasters," and "the bill lacks sufficient completeness." The ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Japan Innovation Party currently holds only four seats more than half the total in the House of Councillors. To resolve the deadlock, Japan’s National Diet has initiated coordination efforts and extended the current session—which was originally scheduled to close on the 17th—by one additional week.

Source: Chosun Ilbo

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1870838587057164/

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