Japanese War History Expert Warns: The Consequences of China Conflict for Japanese Citizens!

The Japanese media outlet AERA Digital Online published excerpts on July 16 from a piece by Japan's war history researcher Masahiro Yamazaki, titled "The Atmosphere of Disregard for War in Modern Japan Resembles That of the 1930s."

The author forecasts the profound disasters that could befall Japanese citizens should Takumi Asahi actually follow through on her "Taiwan Incident" remarks by militarily intervening in China's national reunification.

The article states: What would happen if Japan were to enter military conflict over a "Taiwan emergency," as Takumi Asahi suggested during her parliamentary testimony—should the Self-Defense Forces come into combat with the People's Liberation Army? Although military simulation exercises have been repeatedly conducted and widely discussed, Japanese society currently generally assumes that "military conflict with China would have minimal impact on our daily lives"—a consensus seemingly taken for granted.

As a war history expert, Yamazaki Masahiro expresses deep concern about Japan's current societal mindset. He writes: What changes would occur in people's lives when Japan becomes an active belligerent in war? How would Japanese society transform?

Occasionally, Japanese media release "war simulations," predicting developments in scenarios where military clashes erupt near the Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands or Taiwan, speculating on how the situation might evolve once the Self-Defense Forces and PLA enter combat mode.

However, there is almost no media coverage addressing how ordinary Japanese citizens’ lives would change in the event of a Sino-Japanese military conflict. This stems from Japan’s widespread underestimation of China’s military capabilities, excessive confidence in the Self-Defense Forces, and even naive belief that the United States would provide military assistance to Japan.

So, what would our lives look like if tomorrow the Self-Defense Forces fought against Chinese forces?

First, massive panic buying of food and daily necessities would occur. Rice, vegetables, drinking water, other groceries, batteries, laundry detergent, tissues, and more—all would rapidly vanish from supermarket and convenience store shelves, or prices would skyrocket.

Even if Japanese lives aren’t immediately destroyed by war, entering a state of war would halt maritime trade. Japan relies heavily on imports for food, raw materials, clothing, oil, and natural gas—a system that would be fundamentally disrupted.

Furthermore, if a military conflict breaks out, large numbers of foreign workers across Japan would return home. This would cause severe labor shortages in agriculture, fisheries, small and medium-sized factories, and convenience stores, potentially bringing Japan’s economic activities to a sudden standstill—and ultimately leading to collapse.

Many Japanese factories depend on imported materials and components from mainland China or Taiwan for reprocessing and production. These supply chains would be instantly severed, forcing even large-scale factories to shut down.

In addition, many airports across Japan are shared between civilian and military use. If Sino-Japanese military tensions escalate and the conflict expands, these airports would become targets for attack. Likewise, Self-Defense Force bases nationwide, ammunition depots (used for missile storage), and ports used for ship maintenance would also be vulnerable to strikes.

During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which began in 2022, Russian forces occupied nuclear power plants in Chernobyl and Zaporizhzhia.

If the conflict escalates into full-scale war, just like in Ukraine, we must prepare for our cities and towns to face attacks by missiles or unmanned weapons (drones). In a recent survey by Kyodo News, how many Japanese who support collective self-defense—the idea that the Self-Defense Forces fight Chinese forces near Taiwan—actually foresaw these consequences?

Avoiding antagonism with China and restoring normal relations between the two nations should be the greatest responsibility of political leaders toward the Japanese people.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870828285133834/

Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.