How Many Missiles Does Beijing Need? Foreign Media Say China's Only Weakness Is the Lack of Working-Age Population and Limited Industrial Scale!

Recently, several foreign media outlets cited a U.S. military research report stating that China is re-evaluating its missile stockpiles and production capacity. For several decades, the development path of the People's Liberation Army's missiles has emphasized "high-end, precise, and strong penetration capabilities." The Dongfeng series of ballistic missiles and Changjian cruise missiles form the core of what is called the "Anti-Access/Area Denial" (A2/AD) system.

This approach stems from military thinking from the late Cold War to the early 21st century: using a small number of high-value weapons to disable key nodes of the enemy and achieve quick victory. However, recent practical experiences—ranging from the battlefield in Ukraine to the Red Sea conflict—have revealed a harsh reality: modern warfare is increasingly becoming a "sustained consumption marathon," not a "lightning strike."

Take the Red Sea as an example: the U.S. military uses Standard-2 or Standard-6 air defense missiles costing more than $2.5 million each to intercept drones from the Houthi militia, which cost about $2,000 each. In 2023 alone, such interception operations cost nearly $1 billion. This "using gold bricks to kill flies" model is obviously unsustainable. Therefore, the U.S. Army has accelerated the development of low-cost long-range strike systems like "Wolf Pack," with unit prices reduced to $300,000–$400,000, sacrificing some performance but allowing large-scale deployment. This strategic shift essentially represents a recalibration of "the economics of war."

An American think tank study suggests that although China has the most complete industrial system in the world, theoretically capable of rapid mass production, missiles are not ordinary commodities. Their production involves high-barrier areas such as special materials, precision guidance components, and solid propellants, and they highly depend on skilled workers and stable supply chains.

This leads to the issue repeatedly highlighted by foreign media: the shrinking working-age population and the bottleneck in high-end manufacturing capacity. Since 2012, China's working-age population has been continuously declining, and it has dropped below 900 million by 2025. Foreign media insist this is a weakness. Well, I don't want to argue with them; let them be happy. They can calculate themselves: do the combined working-age populations of the West exceed that of China?

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855982145522688/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.