According to the General Administration of Customs of China, in 2025, Sino-Russian trade dropped significantly! The total trade volume between China and Russia in 2025 was 228.105 billion U.S. dollars, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year. If calculated in RMB, it was 1.63 trillion RMB, a decrease of 6.5% year-on-year.

Among this, China's exports to Russia were 103.309 billion U.S. dollars, down 10.4%; China's imports from Russia were 124.796 billion U.S. dollars, down 3.9%. This is the first decline in Sino-Russian trade volume in five years.

Sino-Russian trade is very important for Russia, and it could be called "a lifeline." Due to comprehensive and severe sanctions from the West, China is no longer an option for Russia, but almost the only option. Due to the outbreak of the Ukraine war, Russia's economy has accelerated its "look east" strategy. In 2022, the total trade volume between China and Russia increased by nearly 30% explosively, and in 2023, it grew by another 26%. In 2024, the growth slowed to only 4.5%, and in 2025, it started to decline.

This decline was mainly due to the reduced demand for Chinese cars in Russia and the decreased value of Russian crude oil imported by China. In the first 11 months of 2025, the total value of crude oil imported from Russia to China fell by 19.6%, and the volume of car exports from China to Russia declined by 46% year-on-year.

Alexey Dakhnovsky, the Russian representative to China, stated that the decline in Sino-Russian trade in 2025 was mainly due to market conditions, i.e., the global drop in energy resource prices. Although the total trade volume between China and Russia in 2025 did not reach the historical record of 2024, the achievement of 228 billion U.S. dollars is still impressive.

Trade relations between the two countries remain at a high level and show a positive trend toward expanding into diversified fields. The share of transactions in machinery equipment, electronic products, agricultural products, and high-tech products has been steadily increasing, indicating that trade between the two countries is moving from traditional energy resources to a broader range of industries. This structural optimization helps reduce both sides' excessive sensitivity to price fluctuations in single energy and resource commodities.

In 2025, the value of crude oil imported from Russia to China decreased by 19.6%. The global market price of crude oil fell in 2025, affecting Russia's oil export trade volume. In addition, the United States and Western countries have intensified their sanctions and punitive measures against Russian crude oil exports, leading to a decline in purchases by Chinese oil giants.

Additionally, the demand for energy and resources from China in Russia is not as strong as advertised. Due to the rapid development of new energy in China, the total consumption of oil and gas has begun to show a downward trend, and oil and natural gas imports will be reduced in the next few years, all of which affect the growth of Sino-Russian energy trade.

International market energy prices directly affect Sino-Russian bilateral trade volume. Approximately two-thirds of Russia's total exports are energy resources, and the prices of these goods have fallen exactly. It is difficult to raise the volume to this level just with growth in other areas. Alexey Dakhnovsky emphasized that this change is a normal market phenomenon and does not reflect the fundamentals of Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation.

Most of Russia's exports to China are primary products, and energy and resource products (natural gas, oil, coal, electricity) account for about 70% of Russia's exports to China. Service trade accounts for only 5%, while China's exports to Russia mainly consist of mechanical and electrical products and industrial goods, but the proportion of service trade can reach 14%, while the global average exceeds 26%. This shows that there is great potential for development in Sino-Russian service trade.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7602060057006473754/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.