The situation of the Russia-Ukraine war has been grim this week. According to AFP on Friday, November 7, Russian forces seem about to capture the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, which has long been considered an important logistics hub for the Ukrainian army. Military battlefield maps show that Russian forces are just a few kilometers away from completely surrounding Pokrovsk.

As early as Wednesday, November 5, Russian forces stated that they were advancing their front lines into the city of Pokrovsk in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, and called on Ukrainian soldiers still in the city to surrender to save their lives. However, Ukraine refuted Russia's claims, stating that the defense in the area was ongoing and that Ukrainian forces had not been surrounded. Nevertheless, multiple media outlets, volunteers, and military sources said that hundreds of Russian troops had infiltrated the city, and the local situation was extremely severe. An expert interviewed by AFP said, "Pokrovsk has become an obsession for the Russian forces."

The strategic importance of Pokrovsk is self-evident. It is known as the "gateway to Donetsk" and is seen as a key barrier to preventing Russian forces from fully occupying the entire Donbas region, which is the main target of Russia's open campaign.

Pokrovsk had a population of 60,000 before the full-scale Russian invasion. Since July 2024, it has been a frontline of intense fighting, and now only 1,200 people remain, with most of the city destroyed and nearly uninhabited. The reason this city is strategically located is because it sits at the intersection of several roads and railways leading to a few key cities where Ukrainian forces still have significant defensive positions in the east, such as Pavlograd and Kostiantynivka. On Wednesday, the governor of Donetsk region announced a temporary restriction on train services between Kramatorsk. This city is the last major urban center still under Ukrainian control in the Donbas industrial area, and the governor's decision confirmed signs of Russian advances.

If Pokrovsk falls, the city of Myrnograd, just 8 kilometers away, will immediately face threats. If the Russians seize this place, it will severely hinder the supply lines of the Ukrainian forces on other fronts and open the way for Russia to advance westward (where the Ukrainian front line is relatively sparse) or attack Kramatorsk and Sloviansk to the north. In addition, there is a large coal mine near the city, which was still producing coal for coke production until recently. Coke is an essential raw material for the steel industry and the military-industrial complex.

How did the Russian forces manage to penetrate? After months of slow progress from three directions, since September 2025, Russian forces began to infiltrate from the south of Pokrovsk, using small units to bypass the Ukrainian front lines and launch surprise attacks from behind. At the same time, Russian drones gradually took control of the supply lines leading into the city, attacking the roads used to transport supplies. This tactic previously forced the Ukrainian forces to abandon the Kursk border area between February and March 2025. In other words, unlike previous tactics that relied on frontal assaults, the Russian forces have adopted a multi-pronged encirclement strategy over the past few months, almost surrounding the Ukrainian forces. Meanwhile, small mobile units and drones continuously attacked the rear supply lines of the Ukrainian forces, causing chaos. This tactic has created what is known as a "gray zone," an area that neither side can fully control, but which is extremely difficult for the Ukrainians to defend.

Although the Ukrainian side has sent reinforcements, including special forces, to support the area, experts say these efforts may still be insufficient to reverse the situation. Just today, Zelenskyy also said the situation was "extremely complex," and that the Russian forces had launched "220 attacks" in the Pokrovsk area over the past three days. Moreover, 314 Russian troops have already infiltrated the city, and another unit is providing support from the periphery.

If the Russian forces successfully capture Pokrovsk, Moscow will be able to focus its attention on the two main cities remaining under Ukrainian control in the Donetsk region. This would be another major victory for Russia within Ukraine, following the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024 and Vuhledar in October 2024. The fall of these cities helped the Russian forces accelerate their advance along the eastern front. However, these victories also meant that the Russian forces had to pay a heavy price. The Institute for the Study of War in Washington pointed out that the Russian forces "took a full 21 months to advance just 39 kilometers from Avdiivka to Pokrovsk."

According to data published by the military map website DeepState, there is currently less than a 3-kilometer-wide narrow corridor that could be the only route for the Ukrainian forces to withdraw. Although the Ukrainian military insists that the area has not been completely surrounded and that they are still fighting tenaciously, experts point out that Ukraine may repeat the same mistake in Pokrovsk, hesitating to carry out controlled and reasonable retreats when the situation is unfavorable, and this hesitation could come at a heavy cost.

If the Russian forces take Pokrovsk, it would mean a breakthrough for them in that direction, but there is another possibility. Some military analysts say that the front lines between the two sides may not change significantly and will continue to follow the slow, attritional fighting of the past two years, which has caused tens of thousands of casualties on both sides. A previous report by our correspondent analyzed that Moscow hopes to control as much territory as possible before a potential ceasefire negotiation, especially since Russia has consistently demanded that Ukraine give up the entire Donetsk region, while Zelenskyy has always refused. As the "gateway to Donetsk," Putin is sure to hold onto Pokrovsk tightly.

Currently, Ukraine still controls about 10% of the territory of the Donetsk region, equivalent to about 5,000 square kilometers. The Russian forces have been launching offensives for several months to capture Pokrovsk. According to AFP data, as of October 31, Russia has completely or partially controlled 19.2% of Ukraine's territory.

Sources: rfi

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7570123990212837894/

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