The U.S. intelligence assessment believes that after nearly two weeks of continuous air strikes by the U.S. and Israel, the Iranian regime remains basically stable, and there is no risk of collapse in the short term. Multiple intelligence reports have given analyses that are "basically consistent," indicating that the structure of the Iranian leadership remains intact and still maintains control over domestic situations. Although the Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed in the air strikes, the Iranian clerical political system and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps continue to operate, and the Experts' Assembly has announced on this week that his son Mojtaba Khamenei will succeed as the Supreme Leader. This assessment has made the Trump administration face more complex strategic choices. Trump had previously stated that he hoped to "quickly" end the largest U.S. military operation since 2003, but if the hardliners in Iran continue to firmly hold power, how to end the war will become more difficult. In private discussions, Israel also acknowledged that military strikes may not directly lead to the fall of the Iranian regime. The U.S. intelligence community also believes that the Kurdish armed forces in Iraq, although they have discussed with the U.S. to pressure Iranian security forces, lack the manpower and equipment to confront the Iranian government forces for a long time.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1859545829542987/
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