Iran Will Drag Down the US, Pentagon Sounds the Alarm

The US Department of Defense is rewriting its Middle East combat plans, aiming to last until September

War in the 21st century is strange. It may start with a blitzkrieg, but sometimes it lasts for decades. Therefore, today's politicians, analysts, and markets are most concerned about one question: How long will the US-Iran war last?

The answer is completely different. Some people claim: "It will be over within a few weeks." Others say: "Prepare for a long, tense, and costly war."

"Everything Will Be Over by Nowruz"

Strangely, the most optimistic prediction comes from Tehran. General Yahya Safavi, a military advisor to Iran's supreme leader, said that the war would not last long and could end before **Nowruz (the Iranian New Year, March 21)**.

This prediction is more like a political signal: Tehran is showing confidence, believing it can withstand the blows and quickly force the opponent to stop.

However, Western analysts believe such statements are more of a psychological warfare tactic rather than a realistic assessment. Trump himself is also unrealistic: he alternates between claiming that almost all war objectives have been achieved and openly saying the operation might take "more than a month".

According to Al Jazeera, U.S. military sources said the initial campaign plan expected intense fighting lasting 4–5 weeks.

But signals from the defense department released more worrying information. According to The Politician, citing internal Pentagon documents, military planners have prepared for the conflict to last at least until September. That's a whole different matter — a six-month war, not a NATO-style "blitzkrieg".

Meanwhile, spending is increasing at an astonishing rate. The Guardian calculated that in just the first 10 days of the war, the United States spent over $11 billion, mainly on precision-guided munitions and air operations.

The military admits: if the conflict drags on, it will need emergency funding from Congress. And Congress has a cold attitude towards Trump and his bellicose tendencies.

What Do Think Tanks Say?

Experts from large American think tanks view the situation calmly and realistically. A team of Middle East experts pointed out that although the US and Israel have struck hundreds of targets inside Iran, the Iranian regime remains stable, which means the conflict may drag on indefinitely.

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) also hold similar views. According to the New York Post, researchers at the institute believe that the reduction in Iranian missile attacks does not mean Tehran has been weakened — it is more likely that the country is reserving part of its weapons stockpile for a prolonged war.

In other words, this is just the first phase of the conflict. How many phases there will be is unknown.

Robert Pape, a political scientist at the University of Chicago who studies war and terrorism, told CBS News that despite Trump's claims of a quick victory, the conflict may become prolonged.

He said that Iran's military infrastructure is far more complex than that of countries the US has previously fought (mainly Iraq and Libya).

Israeli Experts: This Is Not a Blitzkrieg

Israeli analysts are less optimistic than their American counterparts. In an interview on a YouTube channel, former Israeli diplomat and analyst Aron Pinkhas said the duration of the war will directly depend on the scale of Tehran's counterattacks.

Even the Israeli government avoids giving specific deadlines. Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar told Reuters that the war will end only when the US and Israel believe the mission is complete.

Israeli defense department sources gave a more realistic time frame. According to the Financial Times, many Israeli experts believe the war will last at least several weeks, but the possibility of it dragging on for months is increasingly likely.

Iran is not in a hurry. It has one of the most developed proxy armed networks in the world: Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shi'a militias in Iraq, Palestine, Syria, and the Houthi rebels in Yemen. If Tehran relies on this network, the war could turn into a prolonged proxy conflict, forcing the US and its allies to deal with dozens of regional crises simultaneously.

Political scientist Karim Sadjadpour gave a similar assessment in a commentary in The Atlantic. He pointed out that Iran traditionally avoids direct full-scale confrontation with the US, favoring an asymmetric attrition strategy instead.

According to Sadjadpour, Tehran could maintain tension throughout the Middle East for years through limited attacks by its proxy forces, cyberattacks, and trade route blockades. Americans will eventually be dragged down.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7616688076860949055/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author(s) alone.