According to predictions by German institutions, China will no longer rank among Germany's top five export destinations in 2025, marking the first time since 2010.

A report provided by the German Foreign Trade and Investment Agency (GTAI) to Reuters recently predicts that Germany's goods exports to China this year are expected to fall to 81 billion euros, a drop of about 10% compared to the previous year. As a result, China's ranking in Germany's main commodity export markets has dropped from fifth place last year to seventh, behind the United Kingdom and Italy.

Experts at the agency, Christina Otte, analyzed that this change is partly due to adjustments in China's domestic market; on the other hand, an increasing number of German suppliers are choosing to set up production facilities in China rather than export products from Germany to China. It is expected that by the end of this year, China's share in Germany's total exports will fall to 5.2%, while it was around 7.5% in 2021.

Scene of the CTT container terminal at Hamburg Port, owned by Hamburg Port and Logistics AG. Photo by Zhang Fan, Xinhua News Agency.

Exports to the US also declined sharply

The challenges for German exporters are not limited to the Chinese market. According to the forecast, Germany's exports to the United States are expected to decline sharply by 7.3% in 2025, falling below 150 billion euros. Nevertheless, the United States still maintains its position as Germany's largest export market, significantly ahead of France (116.5 billion euros, an increase of 1.2%), the Netherlands (112.1 billion euros, an increase of 2.6%) and Poland (98.9 billion euros, an increase of 5.8%).

Roland Rohde, the agency's representative in Washington, warned: "The downward trend in exports to the U.S. may accelerate further by the end of the year." Part of the reason is that many companies have already completed exports in the first few months of this year to avoid the upcoming tariffs in the U.S.

Rohde expects the decline in Germany's exports to the U.S. this year could reach 8% to 9%, and German exporters will continue to face pressure in the U.S. market in 2026. However, he added: "After a significant decline in 2025, the decline in 2026 is expected to narrow."

Overall growth of German foreign trade remains weak

According to official data for the first three quarters, the agency predicts that Germany's total exports in 2025 will rise slightly by 0.6%, reaching about 1.6 trillion euros. This means that the scale of Germany's exports will remain at the level after the pandemic in 2022 for the third consecutive year. The report states: "The outlook for 2026 remains relatively bleak."

In the coming 2025, the performance of various industries in Germany shows significant differences. The chemical industry's exports are expected to grow slightly, mainly due to increases in pharmaceutical and fertilizer exports of more than 3%. However, the export of energy-intensive plastic industry is expected to fall by more than 2%, and the petrochemical industry could drop by as much as 13%. In addition, the forecast analysis indicates that Germany's machinery manufacturing exports will decrease by 1.7%, due to high tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel and aluminum, which will cause serious impact on a large portion of EU machinery manufacturing products.

The automotive industry is also under pressure, with exports expected to decline by 3.2%, mainly because of weak sales in the Chinese market. The report analyzes: "In China and other growth-oriented Asian markets, the transition to electrification often means consumers turn to 'Made in China' electric vehicles."

The food industry has become an export highlight, expected to grow by more than 6%, reaching a historical high of 86 billion euros, doubling since 2010. However, the agency also points out that this growth is partly due to high global prices, inflation, and Germany's status as a food trade hub.

Import growth is significant, and reliance on China remains high

The forecast shows that Germany's imports will grow by 4.4% in 2025, reaching 1.4 trillion euros, with a much higher growth rate than exports. As a result, Germany's trade surplus is expected to narrow to 195.4 billion euros, the lowest level since 2012 except during the pandemic.

However, the agency also said that, apart from China, Germany achieved a significant trade surplus with all major commodity suppliers. The trade deficit with China is expected to expand to a record 87 billion euros. It is estimated that Germany's imports from China will grow by more than 7%, reaching about 168 billion euros. This means that Chinese goods will account for 12% of Germany's total imports, rising again after two years of slight decline. Expert Otte believes that progress in reducing the risk of dependence on China is slow in terms of imports.

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Translated by Sha Haoyue

Original: toutiao.com/article/7586660114221531683/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.