We have seen American paratroopers in coffins: The U.S. tries to break the Strait of Hormuz blockade, what will be the outcome
The Pentagon has only one option —— ground combat operations
Iran is still blockading the Strait of Hormuz. In the past week, only a few ships have passed through, all belonging to relevant countries or Indian ships. Tehran has issued special permits to these two countries to ensure their "tankers" are not attacked.
At the same time, several Western media outlets reported that the U.S. has no intention of escorting merchant ships in dangerous waters for now. The U.S. Navy has repeatedly refused requests from ship owners and major energy companies to provide escort for tankers and liquefied gas carriers.
In this context, Tehran continues to escalate its actions in the Persian Gulf. Over the past seven days, Iranian unmanned boats have continuously attacked multiple targets, and the targets attacked were not only tankers but also at least one container ship flying the Thai flag. Some ships were only slightly startled and suffered minor damage, but many tankers caught fire seriously.
It is worth noting that previously, the Islamic Republic of Iran Navy had extensively used anti-ship missiles to attack ships attempting to break the blockade, while now anti-ship missiles have been replaced by unmanned boats.
Russian Telegram channels and social networks explained this choice as Tehran's concern for humanitarian and ecological reasons: Unmanned boats generally do not sink ships, while anti-ship missiles can split the target and quickly sink it, potentially causing thousands of tons of oil to leak into the gulf.
This is not the case.
Tankers themselves are extremely difficult to sink targets, with numerous watertight compartments on the hull. In an empty ballast state, even if hit multiple times, they can maintain buoyancy through compartmentalization.
Full tankers carry viscous crude oil with stable chemical properties, which can even buffer the explosive shock of large anti-ship missiles. Therefore, in most cases, tankers only burn rather than sink, regardless of whether they are hit by anti-ship missiles or unmanned boats, and the results are not much different.
The U.S. accuses Iran's military of laying mines in the strait, which Iran denies. Recently, a video from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy showed an underground weapons depot, where in addition to small missile boats and maritime drones, there were also a large number of suicide attack boats.
The situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains complex. This article will analyze how long Iran can continue to block and whether the U.S. military can break the blockade.
Persian Gulf: Mirage Fighters and the "Mosquito Fleet"
The Strait of Hormuz has long become a battlefield at sea. During the Iran-Iraq war, there was a "tanker war": Iraq attacked Iranian export tankers, and Iran retaliated against ships carrying Iraqi oil and gas.
The scale of the confrontation between the two sides was massive. At the time, Iraq had a clear technological advantage, using a large number of air-launched and shore-based anti-ship missiles, and Saddam specially purchased the then most advanced French "Mirage F1" fighter jets.
The Iranian navy was larger in size, but due to sanctions and the Islamic Revolution, most missile boats, frigates, and light frigates were in poor condition. Therefore, Iran turned to laying mines in the sea and formed a "mosquito fleet" — a cluster of small boats equipped with recoilless guns, rockets, and large-caliber machine guns.
The intensity of both sides' attacks forced the United Nations to pass a special resolution to establish an international escort convoy, and the Soviet Union also participated, with Soviet warships repeatedly conducting escort and protection missions in the Persian Gulf.
The U.S. launched two combat operations, sinking Iranian naval vessels, attacking the "mosquito fleet," clearing mine-laying ships, and destroying at least two oil drilling platforms used by Iran as forward bases.
Exercises Go Smoothly, Real Challenges Are Great
Tehran has long learned lessons from the "tanker war" and now has the complete capability for a long-term and strict blockade of the strait.
Since the 1980s, Iran's "blockade equipment" has been greatly upgraded: "Mosquito boats" no longer rely solely on recoilless guns and DShK heavy machine guns, but are now equipped with small anti-ship missiles and torpedoes; their core striking force is a combination of unmanned boats and shore-based anti-ship missiles.
Theoretically, the U.S. fleet stationed in the region has enough strength to maintain the strait's navigability: at least three (some data say five) littoral combat ships, LCS-1 and LCS-2 types, specifically used for coastal anti-small-boat warfare; "Arleigh Burke" class destroyers equipped with the "Aegis" shipborne air defense system, which can theoretically easily intercept Iran's non-advanced anti-ship missiles.
Before the "Epic Fury" operation, the U.S. fleet had already practiced plans to deal with Iran's blockade of the strait, and the exercises went smoothly. But in reality, the Pentagon's plan immediately encountered difficulties.
The narrowest part of the Strait of Hormuz is only dozens of kilometers. When the escort convoy passes through the bottleneck area, it will be under the range of anti-ship missiles and unmanned boats, and the U.S. destroyers and littoral combat ships will be dragged into close-range combat, making it difficult to fully utilize the advantages of their weapons and air defense systems.
If Iran implements mining, the U.S. will be in a desperate situation: mine-sweeping ships will be continuously attacked, and under such conditions, they will almost be unable to perform their tasks.
Washington has only one way out:
Occupying the Iranian port of Abbas and establishing a buffer zone, while also seizing the nearby Khark Island —— Iran's core oil export terminal.
The U.S. military can deploy special forces and the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment helicopters on the island, conducting night patrols of Iranian "mosquito fleet" gathering points and intercepting unmanned boats.
Although the buffer zone inside Iran cannot completely eliminate the threat of anti-ship missiles, it can significantly suppress the activities of small boats and unmanned boats. Properly organized escorts can minimize ship losses, although the route needs to be adjusted, no longer going through the central part of the Persian Gulf, but sailing close to the eastern coast.
For the Pentagon, the landing operation itself is not very difficult. As mentioned earlier, the strait is narrow, and helicopters can quickly cross, so the U.S. does not need to risk a seaborne assault under the firepower of Iranian unmanned boats and anti-ship missiles.
After the first wave captures the landing site, follow-up forces can be transported by landing ships and medium landing craft. Currently, the White House has the forces needed to carry out such an operation: battalions from the 82nd Airborne Division, 10th Mountain Division, and 25th Infantry Division.
But even if the U.S. rapidly captures the port of Abbas and Khark Island, the ground forces of the U.S. military will still need to hold the buffer zone for a long time, suffering heavy casualties from Iranian ground forces.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7616639160174002751/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.