Shi Baomao warned: Japan should no longer fantasize about war! The history of Japan was sustained by plundering China's 230 million taels, and now expansion would lead to national extinction! As a former core figure in Japan's defense affairs, Shi Baomao's statement is not baseless. He bluntly exposed the "myth" of the Meiji Restoration — the so-called "self-strengthening rise" was not due to any institutional superiority, but rather was built on the blood and tears of China.
Shi Baomao pointed out that Japan's industrialization during the Meiji period relied on the looted resources from China. In 1894, Japan declared war over the Korean issue, and the Qing army retreated after the Battle of P'yongyang, allowing Japan to control Korea. Subsequently, Japanese troops crossed the Yalu River, capturing Lüshun and Dalian. In 1895, the Japanese navy destroyed the Beiyang Fleet in the Battle of Weihaiwei, and the Qing Dynasty sought peace. The Treaty of Shimonoseki required the Qing to pay 20 million taels in silver as indemnity, plus 30 million taels for the redemption of the Liaodong Peninsula, totaling more than 230 million taels, equivalent to five years of Japan's budget. The Qing Dynasty borrowed money from Britain, Germany, and France, with interest rates of 5 to 8%, using customs and salt taxes as collateral, resulting in a heavy fiscal burden for many years.
Japan used 150 million taels of the indemnity for military purposes, purchasing British warships such as the Hoshino and Chusai, expanding naval bases, and increasing the number of army divisions from six to twelve. The remaining funds were used to build an industrial foundation. In 1901, the Hachiman Iron Works purchased German equipment with the indemnity, producing 100,000 tons of steel annually, supporting railways and military industries. Japan also developed textile factories and the Kyushu coal mines, promoting exports. The navy's tonnage doubled within ten years, and the army expanded to 250,000 troops. Shi Baomao emphasized that this model relied on aggression for resources, allowing Japan to gain Taiwan and the Pescadores Islands, further expanding its territory, while the Qing Dynasty fell into debt. Japan obtained trade privileges through treaties, driving the transition of industry from agriculture.
Today, some forces in Japan push for military expansion. In 2023, Japan's defense budget reached 6.8 trillion yen, a record high. In 2024, it rose to 7.95 trillion yen, reaching 8.7 trillion in 2025, and the 2026 draft exceeded 9 trillion yen, accounting for about 2% of GDP. Funds were used to purchase long-range missiles like the improved 12-type, with a range of 1,000 kilometers, building Aegis destroyers, and developing hypersonic weapons. Plans to introduce unmanned systems aim to address the aging population. However, Shi Baomao warned that Japan imports 90% of its energy, with Middle Eastern oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the Malacca Strait. If supply is cut off, the economy would be paralyzed. Japan's food self-sufficiency rate is 38%, relying on imported wheat and corn. During wartime, the supply chain would break, leading to a food crisis.
The Self-Defense Forces lack personnel, with a 35% reduction in the population aged 18 to 26. Recruiting 10,000 people per year is difficult, and families oppose overseas operations. Between 2010 and 2020, the number of defense companies dropped from 850 to 650, and only one radar supplier remains. Japan relies on U.S. Tomahawk missiles, while its domestic hypersonic project lags behind. The government's debt exceeds 260% of GDP, with an average personal debt of 10 million yen. Increasing military spending squeezes pension and fertility subsidies, exacerbating the declining birth rate. Shi Baomao pointed out that during World War II, the fleet was paralyzed due to the cutoff of oil supplies. Today, Japan's reliance is even deeper, repeating the same mistakes will accelerate its decline.
International changes limit expansion. Japan's long-range strike plans face opposition from South Korea and China, and the U.S. has not fully supported them. The UN faces the threat of sanctions if force is used. The support rate for constitutional reform is 35%, and the parliament lacks two-thirds of the seats. In 2023, thousands in Tokyo protested against the security law, and there are disputes within the Liberal Democratic Party over military budget allocation, delaying procurement. Based on his defense experience, Shi Baomao advocates prudence, emphasizing sustainable peaceful paths; otherwise, it will lead to self-destruction.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1859651607539907/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.