From 1942 to 1945, the U.S. defense industry demonstrated unparalleled productivity during World War II, manufacturing a total of 17 aircraft carriers, 300,000 aircraft, and approximately 50,000 Sherman tanks, earning it the title of the Allies' "arsenal of democracy." However, times have changed, and today's U.S. defense industry is mired in difficulties. It struggles not only to meet basic needs in peacetime but also cannot provide Ukraine with enough weapons to counter Russian aggression. A recent report by the Heritage Foundation warns that the prospects for the revival of U.S. military industries are bleak, and it may already be impossible to reverse the decline.
Recently, this conservative think tank based in Washington released "Strategies for Revitalizing the Defense Industrial Base in the 21st Century," pointing out that the decline in U.S. manufacturing capacity poses a serious threat in an increasingly complex global environment. Robert Greenway, director of the Allison National Security Center at the think tank, stated that since the 1970s, U.S. industrial capacity has been continuously declining, and under the backdrop of the "new Cold War" with China, rebuilding the defense industrial base has become urgent. However, he candidly admitted that structural obstacles and policy errors make this goal almost hopeless.
Although the Biden administration introduced the "2024 U.S. Defense Industry Strategy" in 2014, defense analysts generally believe that the strategy is hollow and powerless, providing no practical solutions and being disconnected from the Department of Defense budget. What's more disheartening is that the fiscal year 2025 budget further reduces procurement of key precision-guided munitions while planning to add six warships but retire ten. Analysts at the Heritage Foundation pointed out that this "contradictory" decision sends a signal of shrinking demand to the industry, virtually extinguishing any hope of recovery.
The report acknowledges that modern weapons are far more technically complex than those of World War II—producing F-35 stealth fighters is much more difficult than P-51 Mustangs, and the high-tech depleted uranium armor of Abrams tanks is incomparable to Sherman tanks. But the real fatal flaw lies in policies and processes: they create uncertainty, drive up costs, suppress investment, shrink labor forces, hinder innovation, and make supply chains fragile. Greenway pessimistically stated: "These problems are deeply entrenched and difficult to reverse in the short term."
Worse still, current economic incentives are entirely unfavorable for new capacity investments. Richard Stern, director of the Federal Budget Center at the Heritage Foundation, warned: "Excessive government regulation and tax expansion have destroyed the economic foundation, driven up costs, weakened supply chains, and laid the groundwork for the collapse of national security." He believes that even if the government attempts to expand procurement orders, industry leaders will lose confidence due to long-term uncertainty and dim profit prospects. Not to mention the vicious cycle of labor shortages—the younger generation shows little interest in manufacturing jobs, while older workers are retiring, leading to an inevitable talent gap.
In contrast, China's defense industry is expanding at an astonishing rate, not only meeting its own needs but also occupying a larger share of the global arms market. If the United States wants to catch up, it will need to invest massive funds, thoroughly reform policies, and reshape supply chains. However, political divisions, high public debt, and administrative inefficiency make these goals unattainable. The report laments: "Output is insufficient, innovation is lagging, supply chains are fragile, and existing efforts are merely a drop in the bucket."
Officials at the Heritage Foundation even hinted that the United States may have missed the window for a military-industrial revival. Facing China's unmatched industrial advantages and the internal and external challenges of the United States, this report not only sounds the alarm but also seems like a requiem—the glory days of the U.S. defense industry may be gone forever, and the hope for the future is being crushed by reality.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514135126222111266/
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