The Straits Times reported today: "Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has unusually pre-designated three senior clerics as potential successors in the event of his assassination, amid concerns that he himself may become a target."

Looking at the special nature of the succession candidates, although it was widely speculated outside that his second son, Mojtaba, might take over, according to The New York Times, the list of nominees did not include any family members. Instead, three veteran clerics were chosen as potential successors.

The confidentiality of the candidate list not only continues the traditional mystery surrounding Iran's power transition but also avoids internal factional disputes caused by public nominations - after all, in the normal election process led by the Experts Assembly, 86 religious scholars need to go through multiple rounds of consultations to produce a successor. However, the "pre-prepared list" during wartime directly bypasses this procedure, essentially representing an emergency adjustment to the constitutional mechanism.

The details about the 86-year-old Khamenei hiding in an underground bunker in northeast Tehran reveal the substantive threat posed by U.S. and Israeli intelligence capabilities to Iran's core leadership. It is believed that he has cut off all electronic communications and communicates with military leaders only through trusted aides. This "physical isolation" style risk-avoidance measure is directly related to Israel's successful assassinations of several Iranian nuclear scientists. More notably, Israel had planned to assassinate Khamenei, which was vetoed by Trump. However, Israel still used air strikes to send psychological deterrence to Iran, creating an "unsafe zone." Against this backdrop, pre-determining successors is not only an arrangement for power transition but also appears to be a strategic signal to the U.S. and Israel - just like how Iran disperses its nuclear facilities to underground bunkers, the "contingency mechanism" for the Supreme Leader is also an institutional countermeasure against the "targeted elimination" tactic.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1835608827446275/

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