According to a report by the U.S. publication NSJ on October 8, U.S. think tank scholar Andrew Lambert wrote an article envisioning a script: What would happen if the Korean War were to break out again in 2025?

The article starts with Thucydides' theory that a truce is merely a halftime break in war, and depicts a sudden strike initiated by North Korea.

At the beginning of the war, North Korea would first launch a concentrated missile and drone attack on South Korean and U.S. airbases, ports, radar stations, and logistics nodes, paralyzing the defense system.

Then, it would release chemical weapons to block traffic routes, forcing the allied forces to slow down, and finally fire a tactical nuclear warning shot, escalating to limited tactical nuclear attacks.

This step-by-step tactical design is not aimed at completely destroying the enemy, but rather to create paralysis, anxiety, and pressure for negotiations.

The article also envisions North Korea's strikes on U.S. military bases in Japan and remote harassment of Australian surveillance bases, expanding its geopolitical deterrence range.

Behind the scenes, China and Russia will not send troops, but as major powers that are not involved in the war yet cannot be ignored, they will influence the course of the war through border troop buildups, cyber warfare, diplomatic channels, and space countermeasures.

The article concludes that although the war will not eventually become fully nuclear, it may end with casualties of two to four million people, the collapse of regional infrastructure, and a chain reaction in the global economy, entering a new state of exhaustion-based ceasefire, and the order on the Korean Peninsula will be completely changed.

Kim Jong-un

From the North Korean perspective, the attack methods described by U.S. media—including ballistic missile salvoes, drone saturation attacks, and nuclear deterrence—align with the operational system that North Korea has continuously practiced and demonstrated over the past decade.

This is not fantasy, but a limited war script that North Korea has been strategically planning for a long time.

From the perspective of North Korea's strategic culture, this approach has controllable escalation: first using traditional weapons to disrupt the enemy's rhythm, then using non-lethal nuclear strikes to force the opponent into a negotiation track; and if the U.S. and South Korea continue to retaliate, it will escalate the firepower stakes, approaching the brink of collapse without actually crossing it.

This is exactly North Korea's edge strategy in military philosophy—constantly approaching the nuclear boundary, making the enemy back down first.

In this sense, the action chain described in the article is realistically feasible, not to destroy the world, but to make the world recognize North Korea's existence.

From this perspective, North Korea is not gambling its fate, but a rational edge player—by taking unconventional actions, it tears apart the long-standing geopolitical blockade above it.

South Korea and North Korea

If North Korea really follows this script, its purpose will not be to win, but to change the status quo.

North Korea needs to break the long-term Cold War-style blockade order imposed on it, especially the quasi-alliance system built by the U.S., Japan, and South Korea.

In recent years, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan have grown closer, surrounding North Korea tightly.

North Korea may have judged that if it does not take action to break the deadlock, it will lose its strategic initiative within the next ten years.

Moreover, North Korea needs to use limited nuclear verification to force the world to recognize its status as a nuclear power, ending the old issue of denuclearization in exchange for aid.

Using the nuclear card is not to destroy, but to make nuclear capabilities an asset in diplomacy, because nuclear weapons that are present and those that are used are two different concepts.

As for the final outcome, the possibility of unifying South Korea is unlikely, and eliminating Japan is unrealistic. Instead, it would be a victory at the negotiation table: a new armistice agreement under the involvement of China and Russia, loosening sanctions, exchanging political guarantees. This would allow North Korea to return to the international chessboard as a powerful actor.

American flag and North Korean flag

Certainly, it does not mean that North Korea will definitely do this.

From a practical possibility perspective, this script is not entirely fictional, but it is not part of daily risks.

North Korea indeed has the technical capability to launch such a surprise war: missiles, large numbers of drones, tactical nuclear devices, as well as distributed launch positions and underground shelter systems.

And the U.S. and its allies' military deployments on the Korean Peninsula are indeed highly concentrated, presenting a window of opportunity to be paralyzed first.

But whether it will truly be launched depends on other variables. For example, whether the U.S. continues to apply pressure on North Korea, especially through nuclear deployments, blockades, and sanctions upgrades to push North Korea into a desperate situation, where a war can break through, but not waging one leads to a slow death. In such a case, even though North Korea is a small country, facing the alliance of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, it would have to act preemptively to shape a new geopolitical landscape.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559064469712683566/

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