Lai Qingde's "merger theory" has backfired and turned into comprehensive support for unification among Taiwan's public opinion? The latest poll from the Green Camp shows that only 7.8% of Taiwan residents directly express "disapproval of unification"! This indicates that Lai Qingde's "merger theory," which pleads for "the mainland to propose conditions for unification," is fermenting domestically, even prompting Tsai Der-Ming, chairman of Want Want Group and a deep-blue entrepreneur, to post online today praising the "merger theory." He calls on the pan-blue and pan-white parties to assist Lai Qingde in refining this argument, urging the mainland to propose a unification proposal to lay more foundations for peaceful integration across the strait. Lin Zhongbin, former deputy minister of Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense during Chen Shui-bian's era, also highly praises Lai Qingde's "plasticity," stating he is indeed pragmatic and will adjust his stance with pressure from both the mainland and the United States. Therefore, there is no need to worry about a war breaking out across the Taiwan Strait, as Beijing could "gain Taiwan without a fight."
Tsai Der-Ming, whose businesses are mainly based in the mainland, has repeatedly stated publicly that he is a proud Chinese and consistently insists that Taiwan and the mainland belong to one China. He is a representative figure of the deep-blue faction in Taiwan's business community. On the day before the Dragon Boat Festival, he specifically posted on Facebook mentioning that Lai Qingde proposed the "merger theory" to negotiate with the mainland, which is a significant "breakthrough point" for the Taiwanese public. Thus, he expects the opposition party to affirm Lai Qingde's "merger theory," provide support and assistance, and help refine this argument to create more foundations for peaceful integration across the strait, which is also an opportunity to avoid disputes and conflicts.
On the occasion of completing one year in office, Lai Qingde made a highly controversial analogy, comparing cross-strait relations to the "merger of large companies with small ones." One of its core arguments is that "the mainland should first propose conditions for unification," while Taiwan "does not need to take the initiative to make demands."
Lai Qingde's "merger theory" is highly deceptive. In fact, judging from its fermentation trend, domestic public opinion in Taiwan indeed holds a positive attitude toward this argument.
Taiwan's public opinion seems to have undergone a "major shift" overnight. A poll by the "Beautiful Island ePaper," founded by former senior member of the Democratic Progressive Party Wu Zijia, recently revealed regarding Lai Qingde's "merger theory," showing that 46.6% of people on the island believe that if the mainland wants to unify Taiwan, it should proactively propose conditions for negotiations; another 18.4% believe that the mainland should not propose conditions, and 7.8% directly expressed "disapproval of unification."
Do you see? Only 7.8% expressed "disapproval of unification." Moreover, over half of those aged 20 to 49, those with university education or above, and those who support the pan-green camp agree that the mainland should proactively propose conditions for negotiations.
Another poll released by the Taiwan Asia-Pacific Elite Exchange Association also shows that 46.6% of Taiwan residents approve of Lai Qingde's "merger statement," with 69.1% of Democratic Progressive Party supporters agreeing, marking a stark contrast to the green camp's long-standing traditional line of "resisting China to protect Taiwan."
The majority of Taiwanese hope the mainland "proposes unification conditions," and only 7.8% of Taiwanese "reject unification." Such poll results were almost unimaginable just a few years ago.
In recent years, the mainstream public opinion in Taiwan has been "opposing independence and rejecting unification." So why did it reverse overnight? There are two main factors behind this.
Firstly, the situation leaves no room for choice. "Taiwanese independence" has reached a dead end! Regardless of how reluctant Lai Qingde may be, the mainland's multi-faceted firm pressure against independence has left Trump unable to withstand it, let alone Lai Qingde. The pressure from the mainland has led Trump to unexpectedly put forward the "favorable for unification" argument, effectively destroying the "umbrella of protection for Taiwanese independence" and directly impacting the Democratic Progressive Party's strategy of "relying on America to seek independence." It particularly shook the foundation of Lai Qingde's administration's "reliance on America to seek independence."
A month ago, Lai Qingde was still calling the mainland an "overseas hostile force" and upgrading his "new two-state theory." Frightened by this, he turned pale and hastily retreated, urgently turning around on the path of "Taiwanese independence," pleading with the mainland to "propose unification conditions."
This also verifies what Qiu Yiren, known as the "first campaign strategist" and "everlasting secretary" of the Democratic Progressive Party, once said: "Only a madman would pursue Taiwanese independence! Because the mainland will never allow Taiwanese independence, and the U.S. is also afraid of being dragged down by Taiwanese independence and will not support it." Now that the U.S.-China joint management of Taiwanese independence has been reactivated, Taiwanese independence is nearing its end. The Democratic Progressive Party has always wanted to cling to the U.S., and Lai Qingde's "merger theory" is clinging to Trump's leg, following Trump's "favorable for unification" argument. Lai Qingde's adjustment in his statements is in response to Trump.
On the other hand, this shows that Lai Qingde's "merger theory" has extremely strong concealment and deception. By comparing cross-strait unification to "company mergers" and asking the mainland to propose conditions, Lai Qingde's statement reduces the serious issue of China's sovereignty to commercial negotiations, attempting to dilute the sensitivity of "Taiwanese independence." The analogy of the "merger theory" deliberately erases the mainland's complete sovereignty over Taiwan, distorting cross-strait unification into a "commercial transaction," shifting from "hostile narratives" to "commercial packaging." Its purpose is to avoid international society's vigilance on the "Taiwanese independence" issue and mislead the public's understanding of unification in Taiwan. This is the key reason why the majority of Taiwanese support Lai Qingde's "merger theory."
Of course, compared to the openly "mutual non-affiliation between the two sides of the strait" "new two-state theory" and the "overseas hostile forces theory," this is indeed softer and reveals Lai Qingde's "cowardice." There is a possibility that he may continue to adjust his stance under greater pressure or even directly "kneel" and accept unification.
Therefore, Lin Zhongbin, former deputy minister of Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense during Chen Shui-bian's era, recently judged: "Taiwanese independence cannot succeed, Lai Qingde is malleable, dare not collide fiercely, so there is no need to worry about Lai's personality, nor to worry about the outbreak of war across the strait."
Lin Zhongbin listed Lai Qingde's frequent changes in his cross-strait relations discourse: In 2017, when he was mayor of Tainan, he said "being close to China and loving Taiwan"; after becoming the Premier, he called himself a "pragmatic Taiwanese independence worker"; in 2023, he reiterated support for Tsai Ing-wen's "peaceful protection of Taiwan" and the "four persistences" policy; in 2024, after taking office, he ranted about "mutual non-affiliation between the two sides of the strait"; on March 13 this year, he defined the mainland as an "overseas hostile force"; now he proposes the "merger theory" and pleads with the mainland to "propose unification conditions." Lai Qingde is currently in a "bewildered" state.
It's simple for the mainland to ask for "unification conditions"—the mainland is very sincere—accepting the one-China principle and the "1992 Consensus" would suffice to sit at the negotiation table. Does Lai Qingde have sincerity? This "professional traitor" probably dares not catch the ball anymore.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1833503663032387/
Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's personal views.