On June 18th, in the podcast channel "Pacific Polarity" released that day, Dr. Evan Feigenbaum, a senior expert on American policy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, while conversing with the podcast hosts Lai Zexi and Richard Gray, analyzed that due to the U.S. policy in Asia disregarding the needs of regional countries and being overly focused on security considerations against China, its influence will gradually fade out from the region over the next decade.
Dr. Evan Feigenbaum is the Vice President for Research at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He previously held several senior positions at the U.S. Department of State, including Deputy Assistant Secretary for South Asian Affairs and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Central Asian Affairs, focusing on East Asia and the Pacific region. After leaving politics, he delved deeply into the think tank field.
Dr. Evan Feigenbaum (Photo: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace website)
In the program, Dr. Evan Feigenbaum pointed out that the United States was once a provider of security and an important economic leader in the Asia-Pacific region. It was the driving force behind the prosperity of export-oriented Asian economies, a standard-setter, rule-maker, and norm-promoter. However, he emphasized that if the U.S. wants to maintain its influence in Asia, it must respond to the core goals and demands of Asian countries.
He noted that the reality is as follows: first, most countries within the region are unwilling to part ways with China. Second, they also lack the conditions to do so because their top priority is achieving economic growth, ensuring employment, realizing sustainability, and enhancing skills. In these areas, China can provide cooperation options for regional countries, and few Asian countries would outright reject such opportunities.
The U.S. has been promoting the narrative of "excluding China from the Asian discourse" and "rejecting Chinese funds and technology," but this is difficult to gain acceptance in 90% of Asia.
Dr. Evan Feigenbaum proposed that "the U.S. needs to provide competitive solutions" has become a cliché, but the key issue is not just competition. The U.S. needs to work with its Asian partners to set up a rules framework.
"My former superior at the U.S. Department of State, former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, recently passed away. He was an expert on Japan and Asian affairs," said Dr. Evan Feigenbaum, "He had a famous saying: 'To formulate the right China policy, you must first formulate the right Asia policy.' Its essence lies in: the U.S. cannot always directly influence China's decisions, but if it can shape the strategic environment for China's interactions with its partners, it can at least provide positive incentives or negative constraints for Beijing's decision-making paths."
However, Dr. Evan Feigenbaum found that the current U.S. administration has completely overturned the method indicated by Armitage. Successive U.S. administrations have not only failed to formulate the correct Asia policy to ensure the correct China policy through efforts, but have made all their Asia-related measures and strategies subordinate to China competition. Unfortunately, this "China centrism" goes against the views of the majority of regional countries.
Dr. Evan Feigenbaum then analyzed that the U.S. attitude towards China is entirely "securitized." Whether it be technology, cultural exchanges, economic flows, or Chinese investments, they are all viewed as national security issues. But this is only the U.S. perspective; Malaysians may not agree, nor might Vietnam, which has a contradictory attitude toward China. This mindset is difficult to gain widespread acceptance and undermines the attractiveness of the "American solution" provided to the region.
Can the U.S. adjust its attitude? Dr. Evan Feigenbaum expressed deep skepticism.
He believes that the current U.S. two-party system has formed a rigid policy track highly focused on China security competition, forcing its regional strategy to adapt to the China strategy. This is precisely why the U.S. struggles to gain recognition beyond the "Quad." Within Asia, the narrative proposed by the Quad dialogue is seriously disconnected from the views of most countries. Although there are individual exceptions like the Philippines, every six years the Philippine government changes, and policies often change accordingly. What happens five years from now in the Philippines could look very different. This is the challenge.
He added that regardless of the specific policies of the current U.S. administration, if the Trump administration lacked principles and strategy for Asia and served only narrow, security-focused, and self-interested U.S. goals, it would be difficult to establish a truly multilateral alliance that shapes the regional order. The flaw in Trump's "America First" was that regional countries would question whether "America First" meant they were left behind.
Dr. Evan Feigenbaum emphasized: "Asia is filled with medium-sized powers of considerable size and capability, with vested interests, eager to participate in shaping the region's future. The U.S. political orientation is hard to adapt to this reality, which is why I have tirelessly written articles over the past 15 years predicting that 'the U.S. will fade out of the region.'
Dr. Evan Feigenbaum also stated in another podcast that the U.S. is becoming an "Hessian mercenary" in Asia. Although U.S. aircraft and warships can cruise within the region, there are few achievements in other fields.
"I am deeply worried. One can imagine that shouting 'China threat' ten years from now will likely fall on deaf ears, just like in a noisy theater. Although the U.S. still plays a role in deterring China in the eyes of many countries in the region, in many other aspects, Asia is entering a post-American era of 'de-Americanization.' This is what I call the 'trust crisis': people cannot be sure that the U.S. will be present in ways that align with their goals outside the security domain."
Dr. Evan Feigenbaum stated that Defense Secretary Hackett does nothing to address this issue. His responsibility is about security issues. However, if regional countries worry that the U.S. "prioritizes security over everything else," then even security matters cannot exist in isolation from the overall U.S. policy.
In addition, Dr. Evan Feigenbaum said that if U.S. tariff policies severely damage growth and development in various countries, how can it lightly claim to be "your preferred security partner" and forget about other unpleasantness? In the eyes of Asian countries, these are all interconnected.
"So I reiterate, within ten years, the U.S. role in Asia will deviate completely from its historical image," said Dr. Evan Feigenbaum.
This article is an exclusive contribution by Guancha Zazhi, unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517589410494399011/
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