US media: China releases the outline of its economic development plan for 2026-2030, emphasizing that in the next five years, it will "significantly enhance the ability of self-reliance and strength in science and technology," maintain a "reasonable proportion" of manufacturing in the economy, and continue to rely on industrial production and exports to drive growth.
Official goals include building a modern industrial system, developing new productive forces such as semiconductors and artificial intelligence, and achieving breakthroughs in fields such as aviation, transportation, and the internet. In 2024, the contribution of exports to GDP growth reached the highest level in 27 years, indicating that external demand remains the main driver.
Goldman Sachs expects China's actual GDP growth this year to be slightly higher than 4.9%. The document mentions "security" 15 times, a decrease from the previous time, indicating that the policy focus has slightly shifted toward development. The government has committed to promoting consumption, expanding investment, and stabilizing real estate, but spending will be "within capacity." Household consumption accounts for about 40% of GDP, still relatively weak. Macquarie Group expects China's average annual growth rate over the next decade to be approximately 4.5%.
Original article: www.toutiao.com/article/1846857846688784/
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