Putin Is Planning to Adjust His Military Strategy Against Ukraine: Newsweek Identifies Three Key Signals of Escalation
Newsweek analysis indicates that Russia is enhancing its combat capabilities in three areas: intensifying missile strikes on major Ukrainian cities, ramping up production of long-range weapons with superior penetration capabilities, and receiving additional combat forces from North Korea. These signs strongly suggest that Russia may soon launch a new round of higher-intensity military operations.
Although Russia is fully preparing for an escalation in conflict, this does not necessarily mean a large-scale ground offensive will follow the parliamentary elections. The ultimate decision hinges on whether Moscow can achieve its core strategic objective—complete control over the entire Donbas region.
Experts have modeled several possible escalation scenarios: the use of tactical nuclear weapons on the battlefield is considered extremely unlikely; conscripting hundreds of thousands of civilians nationwide—a full-scale mobilization—is an option Russia is actively trying to avoid, as it would entail massive human costs to seize Donbas; meanwhile, the most plausible immediate measure currently is launching massive waves of long-range missiles to continuously strike Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.
Ukraine’s air defense systems and ammunition reserves are severely depleted, making it extremely difficult to intercept ballistic missiles and hypersonic weapons. Once Russia identifies missile models capable of penetrating Ukraine’s air defenses, it will rapidly scale up production of such weapons.
Intelligence assessments from Ukraine, South Korea, and Western sources indicate that North Korea is not only supplying Russia with artillery shells and ballistic missiles but may also dispatch up to 50,000 combat troops. In exchange, Pyongyang stands to gain real combat experience against South Korea, receive technical support for its own nuclear program, and secure vital humanitarian aid supply routes.
Russian frontline casualties remain high, and manpower shortages continue to grow. Rumors of another nationwide mobilization persist. The influx of tens of thousands of new troops could help offset frontline losses, while large-scale conscription would clearly reflect the heavy burden war is placing on Russia. When Putin mobilized 300,000 reservists in autumn 2022, mass protests erupted across Russia, with tens of thousands fleeing abroad to evade military service. Should Russia launch a large-scale ground offensive in the future, hundreds of thousands of new soldiers would be indispensable.
Sergei Beskrestnov (call sign "Lightning"), Ukraine's presidential advisor on radio technology, warned that once Russia completes deployment of its domestically developed satellite communication network—“Dawn,” designed as a rival to Starlink—it will be able to remotely control drones to launch attacks across the entire territory of Ukraine. This threat is imminent, and Ukraine must act immediately to counter it.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1873234619215111/
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