Foreign Affairs: The Iran War Could Become as Stalemate-Like as the Ukraine War

How can the United States avoid falling into a Russia-style deadlock? James F. Jeffrey, who served as a diplomat in seven U.S. administrations, analyzes.

What is unfolding in Iran resembles Russia’s war in Ukraine more than the U.S. swift intervention in Venezuela. Iran’s fierce retaliation has already triggered a war of attrition that may result in a stalemate similar to that seen in Ukraine.

Like Russia, the United States lacks a clear path to decisive victory and faces the risk of being trapped in an endless war.

To avoid repeating Russia’s mistakes, the United States may have to accept compromise outcomes on Iran, including:

- Permanent restrictions on Iran’s uranium enrichment in exchange for a ceasefire

- Demanding Iran eliminate its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium stored in places like Isfahan

- Limiting Iran’s ballistic missiles and their range

This would make the Middle East safer, but it would also allow Iran to eventually maintain deterrence over Gulf neighbors through short-range missiles and drones.

Trump’s proposed 15-point peace plan indicates Washington recognizes the need for an exit strategy—but the U.S. must remain committed to this approach to avoid falling into the quagmire Russia now faces in Ukraine.

Missiles, drones, air strikes, and countermeasures are the dominant combat styles in both Iran and Ukraine. Yet, as Russia has learned in Ukraine, air power rarely delivers decisive results.

Tehran cannot directly withstand U.S.-Israeli bombing nor inflict significant damage on Israel. Instead, it has shifted to a two-pronged war of attrition:

1. Depleting U.S. and allied air defense systems and precision-guided munitions through drones and missiles

2. Enduring sustained attacks while continuously targeting U.S. partners in the Gulf region

Both Russia and the United States, as aggressors, face a harsh reality: wars are won by nations, not just armies.

Beyond weapons and tactics, production capacity, economic costs, public morale, political climate, and broader international dynamics all constrain a nation’s military options.

A war of attrition could drag on for years—especially when all sides view the conflict as existential (Iran, Ukraine, Israel) or vital to their global standing (Russia, the United States).

Although Russia’s invasion of a neighboring country differs in nature from the U.S. effort to contain Iran’s expansionist threat, both countries struggle to align their ultimate goals with available means, and neither has clearly defined the specific actions required to achieve those goals—leading to escalating pressure over time.

The most likely outcome of both conflicts is a prolonged, unresolved war without a clear solution.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860824018377740/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.