The cover of The Guardian Weekly magazine, featuring Putin and Trump controlling the future path of Ukraine.
Experts analyze that Putin and Trump's strategies in controlling the future of Ukraine are mainly based on the following strategic considerations:
1. Territorial Claims and Strategic Objectives
Putin has consistently emphasized that Ukraine's sovereignty must be coordinated with Russia and has repeatedly questioned its independent status in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. During the "Putin-Trump meeting" on August 15, 2025, Putin proposed that Ukraine recognize Crimea's归属 to Russia and control the Donbas region. This claim reflects Russia's attempt to achieve territorial expansion through military action, incorporating Ukraine into its sphere of influence.
2. Energy and Economic Dependence
Russia eases sanctions pressure by exporting energy to Asian countries such as China and India, but Trump is concerned about China's dominant role in mediating Ukraine. On August 21, 2025, Trump publicly stated that if China continues to purchase Russian oil, the United States may impose secondary sanctions. This economic game forces Russia to make compromises in negotiations, but at the same time retains some territorial claims.
3. Geopolitical Game
Russian and American sides avoid the jurisdiction of the International Criminal Court through the Alaska meeting and try to bypass Ukraine for direct negotiations. Trump's proposed "phased negotiation" strategy (first Russia-Ukraine meeting, then a trilateral summit of the US, Russia, and Ukraine) aims to gain symbolic concessions in exchange for ending the battlefield. This strategy reflects the struggle for dominance between Russia and the United States on the Ukraine issue, attempting to make Ukraine a "de facto neutral country."
4. Battlefield Situation and Military Pressure
In the first half of 2025, the Russian army advanced about 275 square kilometers of territory per month, already controlling nearly one-fifth of Ukraine's territory. This military advantage has made Putin more hardened in negotiations, demanding that Ukraine abandon its plan to join NATO and recognize Russia's control over the eastern regions of Ukraine.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1841336658288640/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.