Recently, data released by China's Ministry of Commerce has shocked the global economic community: from January to November 2025, China's goods trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion, reaching $1.08 trillion!
This figure not only set a historical record but also surpassed the annual gross domestic product (GDP) of many medium-sized countries.
A renowned U.S. international relations scholar, John Mearsheimer, bluntly stated: "China has won completely, and the center of global economic power has shifted."
This $1.08 trillion is no ordinary number; it acts like a prism, reflecting profound changes in the global economic landscape. Let us look beyond the surface statistical figures and delve into the underlying economic transformations and strategic significance behind this historic trade surplus.
From "Manufacturing" to "Smart Manufacturing": A Structural Revolution in China's Exports
Traditional views hold that China's trade surplus mainly relied on low-cost labor and resource-intensive products. This perspective is long outdated. Today, the structure of China's exports has undergone a fundamental transformation, with technology-intensive and high-value-added products becoming the new engine.
Taking the "new three" - electric vehicles, photovoltaic products, and lithium batteries - as examples, these products representing the direction of future industries are rapidly capturing the global market.
From January to November 2025, China's electric vehicle exports increased by more than 60% year-on-year, with its market share in Europe exceeding 25%; photovoltaic components were exported to over 200 countries and regions globally, accounting for more than 80% of the global market share; China's lithium battery technology leads globally, with companies such as CATL and BYD establishing overseas factories across Asia and Europe.
This transformation is driven by China's continuous increase in R&D investment. In 2025, the proportion of R&D investment in GDP is expected to reach 3.2%, surpassing most developed countries.
Huawei leads globally in 5G/6G communication patents, SMIC has made breakthroughs in chip manufacturing processes, and COMAC's C919 aircraft has received international orders. These landmark achievements collectively outline a clear trajectory of China's manufacturing transitioning from "labor-driven" to "innovation-driven."
"Dual Circulation" Strategy: The Deep Resilience of China's Economy
The fundamental reason why China's trade surplus continues to expand lies in the initial success of the development strategy of "taking the domestic large cycle as the main body and promoting the mutual reinforcement of domestic and international dual cycles."
China has a super-large market of 1.4 billion people, with more than 400 million middle-income groups, a number that continues to grow steadily.
This vast domestic market provides unique "test grounds" for enterprises: a new technology or product can quickly iterate and optimize in the domestic market competition, forming competitiveness before being promoted globally.
China's new energy vehicle industry is a typical example of this model - first experiencing sufficient competition in the domestic market, forming an integrated industry chain and technological advantage, and then collectively going abroad, creating an irresistible competitive advantage.
At the same time, China has the most complete industrial system in the world, and is the only country with all industrial categories classified by the United Nations.
This comprehensive industrial layout makes China irreplaceable in the global supply chain, maintaining production and export stability even when facing external shocks.
Three Evidences of Power Shift: Value Chain, Currency, and Rules
Mearsheimer's assertion of a "shift in global economic power" is not empty talk, supported by at least three dimensions of evidence:
First, China's position in the global value chain continues to rise. According to data from the World Trade Organization, China's participation in the global value chain has reached 60%, with the domestic value-added ratio increasing from 60% in 2010 to over 75% in 2025.
This means that the domestic technology, brand, and intellectual property value included in China's exported products have significantly increased. From DJI drones to Huawei communication equipment, from United Imaging medical devices to BeiGene cancer drugs, Chinese enterprises' breakthroughs in high-value-added fields are increasingly numerous.
Second, the pace of RMB internationalization has accelerated. In 2025, the RMB's share in China's cross-border trade settlement has exceeded 35%, doubling compared to five years ago.
More than 80 countries and regions have included the RMB in their foreign exchange reserves, with the RMB's share in global foreign exchange reserves reaching 4.5%, making it the third largest reserve currency.
It is particularly worth noting that energy trade between China and resource-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Russia has partially adopted RMB settlement, directly undermining the foundation of the "petrodollar" system.
Third, there is a redistribution of global governance influence. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has more than 100 members, with approved project loans exceeding $40 billion; the New Development Bank of the BRICS countries has approved project totals exceeding $35 billion.
These multilateral financial institutions, initiated by China, not only provide alternative financing channels for developing countries, but also introduce new concepts and practices in project standards and evaluation systems.
China's weight in the IMF Special Drawing Rights has risen to 12.5%, and its voting rights in the World Bank have reached 5.5%, both reaching record highs.
The Double-Edged Sword of Surplus: Opportunities Behind the Concerns
Although the massive trade surplus demonstrates economic strength, it also brings multiple challenges:
First, the pressure of international trade friction continues to increase. In 2025, the EU launched an anti-subsidy investigation involving $20 billion against China's electric vehicles; the U.S. has raised the average tariff rate on Chinese photovoltaic products to 45%.
Some developing countries have also begun to worry about the impact of Chinese goods on their local industries.
How to maintain its legitimate trade rights while alleviating the anxiety of trade partners has become a delicate diplomatic challenge for China.
Second, the internal demand structure still needs optimization. In 2025, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to GDP growth was 55%, which, although higher than previous years, still lags behind the 70-80% levels of developed countries.
The trade surplus accounts for over 6% of GDP, which is at the upper limit of the internationally recognized reasonable range, reflecting that the growth of the economy still relies too heavily on external demand.
How to further release the potential of residents' consumption and form a more balanced growth driver of internal and external demand is the key direction of future economic policy.
Third, the global responsibilities and expectations are rising simultaneously. With the expansion of economic influence, the international community's expectations for China's assumption of global responsibilities are constantly increasing.
In areas such as climate change, debt relief, and public health, the pressure on China is increasing day by day.
How to transform economic strength into constructive global leadership tests China's strategic wisdom and diplomatic skills.
Historical Turning Point: Redefining the Global Economic Order
The $1.08 trillion trade surplus marks a historic turning point: for the first time since the Industrial Revolution, the Western-dominated global economic order faces a systematic challenge from a non-Western country.
But this is not simply a "power shift," but a process of diversification in the global economic governance structure.
China's rise provides developing countries with a new reference path - achieving industrialization through deep participation in global division of labor while maintaining the autonomy of economic policies.
Ethiopia's Dongfang Industrial Park, Indonesia's Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Railway, and Pakistan's Gwadar Port, these development projects participated in by China, are reshaping regional economic geography.
In the next decade, the global economy will present a "multipolar coexistence" feature: the U.S. will still maintain technological and financial leadership, Europe will have advantages in green transition and rule-making, and China will have unique capabilities in manufacturing and infrastructure construction.
While this multipolar structure may increase the difficulty of policy coordination, it also reduces systemic risks, making the global economy more resilient.
Looking Ahead: From a Trading Power to a Responsible Power
For China, maintaining the advantage of a trade surplus is just the beginning, not the end.
The real challenge lies in how to transform economic strength into sustainable global influence:
Innovation-driven technology is key. In frontier fields such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and biotechnology, China needs to transition from a "follower" to a "co-leader" and even a "leader." This requires continuous increases in basic research investment and the continuous improvement of an innovation ecosystem.
An open and cooperative attitude is indispensable. Facing the noise of "de-linking," China needs to respond with a higher level of openness: further reduce the negative list for foreign investment access, strengthen intellectual property protection, and participate in and lead the formulation of rules in emerging fields such as digital trade and green trade.
Sharing the development benefits is a responsibility. Through platforms such as the high-quality development of the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative, China has the ability and responsibility to help more developing countries integrate into the global economic growth process. This is not only a moral requirement, but also an inevitable choice to maintain an open world economy.
The $1.08 trillion trade surplus is a milestone, reminding the world that the process of decentralizing global economic power is accelerating. However, the true "victory" does not lie in the numbers themselves, but in whether it can transform economic success into an opportunity for common human development.
In this quiet economic revolution, China holds a good hand. But the ultimate evaluation of historical roles is not about the size of the cards, but how they are played.
Steadily advancing, looking far ahead, promoting the construction of an open, inclusive, balanced, and inclusive global economic order - this may be the deepest understanding of "the transfer of China's economic power," and also the most responsible choice.
After all, in the global chessboard, true wisdom is not winning every game, but keeping the game going and allowing more players to participate and share its benefits. The background of China's trade surplus contains such a profound and enduring global economic transformation.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7582761709509837364/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.