At a time when U.S. economic data has become the barometer for global financial markets, a single nomination by Trump has thrust the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) into the center of a political storm.

The person standing beside Trump is the newly appointed E.J. Antoni

The White House announced that E.J. Antoni, chief economist at the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, will replace Erica McEntaffer, who was suddenly fired, as the next head of this key institution. This news quickly sparked widespread concern in the economics community, Wall Street, and the policy circle.

Critics argue that Antoni lacks professional competence and holds a highly partisan stance. His appointment may weaken the independence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and undermine public and market trust in official U.S. economic data.

The Resignation Controversy: Originated from the July Employment Report

The storm originated from the July nonfarm payroll report. According to the report, the U.S. added only 73,000 nonfarm jobs, far below the 100,000 expected by analysts. At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and the employment data for May and June was also revised downward, totaling a reduction of 258,000 jobs.

For the market, this was a disappointing data set, but for Trump, it was an "unacceptable" report. The president publicly accused McEntaffer of "fabricating data" without evidence and claimed that this was the Biden administration "manipulating economic data" to help Vice President Kamala win votes.

Erica McEntaffer, who was fired by Trump

"These are fake data, completely fabricated," Trump angrily said at a press conference. Soon after, he fired McEntaffer and claimed he would "appoint someone who truly tells the truth."

A few days later, Antoni's name was officially announced.

Who is E.J. Antoni?

Antoni currently serves as the chief economist at the conservative think tank Heritage Foundation, known for his outspoken political views and strong advocacy for free markets. He is active on Fox Business News and social media, often criticizing the fiscal and labor policies of the Democratic government.

However, his reputation in the academic community is not commendable. Multiple scholars point out that there are many "basic errors" in Antoni's research, and his conclusions often strongly align with partisan positions.

In an interview with Fox, Antoni proposed a startling suggestion: the Bureau of Labor Statistics should suspend the release of monthly employment reports and retain only quarterly data. His reasoning was that quarterly data is more "accurate," although less timely.

This proposal shocked the public. For a long time, BLS's monthly employment reports have been considered the "thermometer" of the U.S. economy, not only influencing the policy direction of the Federal Reserve but also directly affecting the sentiment of global financial markets. Suspending the release of monthly data would almost amount to cutting off the channel for investors, businesses, and policymakers to access the economic "real-time pulse."

Academic Consensus Against

Antoni's nomination was swiftly met with fierce criticism from the academic community.

  • Stan Veuger, senior researcher at the American Enterprise Institute, stated: "In his work at Heritage, he often makes basic errors or absurd topics, which are clearly politically biased."
  • Jessica Riedl, an economist at the Manhattan Institute, added: "I have seen his articles and tweets; he may be the one with the most errors among all think tank economists. I hope the Bureau of Labor Statistics can do better."
  • Daniel Di Martino pointed out that in a post in September 2024, Antoni claimed that the official statistics "artificially suppress the unemployment rate," which is "not factual." He bluntly stated: "This kind of basic error shows that he is not qualified to be the director of the BLS."
  • Dave Hebert, from the American Institute for Economic Research, was even more sharp: "I have participated in several projects with him, and two things impressed me: first, he lacks understanding of basic economics; second, he quickly politicizes his work. I just hope the Senate can stop this."

The rare consensus among academics reflects deep concerns about the erosion of BLS's independence.

Why Is BLS So Important?

Founded in 1884, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is one of the most authoritative statistical agencies in the world. It is responsible for collecting and analyzing key data on employment, unemployment, wages, and prices in the United States. Data such as the nonfarm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are not only important references for the Federal Reserve in formulating monetary policy but also core references for businesses and investors in judging economic trends.

That is why BLS has always emphasized political independence. Whether under Democratic or Republican rule, past directors have strived to maintain the agency's professional reputation.

"The BLS data is the 'North Star' for global investors. If it loses credibility, not only the U.S. market but also the global finance will be affected," said a former Treasury official who did not want to be named.

Risks of Political Interference

Trump's tense relationship with official economic data is not a new occurrence. During his first term, he repeatedly accused government agencies of "underestimating economic performance," and even hinted during the 2020 pandemic that "the data was manipulated." Now, he has once again targeted the BLS, triggering strong concerns about political interference.

Experts warn that if the BLS is viewed as a political tool, the consequences will be severe:

  1. Market Trust Undermined — Investors rely on BLS data to judge economic trends. If the data is suspected of political manipulation, the market may turn to private institutions for statistics, thereby increasing uncertainty.
  2. Asset Price Volatility — Employment data directly affects the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. Once the data is no longer credible, stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets may experience significant fluctuations.
  3. Ordinary People Suffer — From 401(k) retirement plans to mortgage rates, the financial health of millions of American families is closely tied to BLS data. If the data becomes distorted, they may make wrong financial decisions without realizing it.

"Damaging the independence of the BLS is like destroying the infrastructure of economic operations," Riedl warned.

The White House's Defense and Political Game

Despite the ongoing criticism, the White House has firmly supported the appointment of Antoni. Trump wrote on "Truth Social": "Our economy is booming, and E.J. will ensure the data released is true and accurate."

Currently, the BLS has suspended the release of monthly employment reports and is preparing to adjust according to Antoni's statistical methods. This rare move has already caused market anxiety.

According to procedure, Antoni's nomination still needs Senate approval. Democrats have clearly stated they will do everything possible to block it. Within the Republican Party, there are also voices concerned that this could cause long-term damage to the BLS's reputation.

"This is a matter of the U.S. economy's credibility, not just a party struggle," said a Republican senator privately to the media.

A Dangerous Crossroads

As the nomination moves into the Senate process, the United States stands at a delicate juncture: on one side, the impulse of political control over data, and on the other, an independent institution that sustains the economy.

If Antoni takes office, the Bureau of Labor Statistics may face its most controversial moment in a century. Whether its data can still be trusted by the market and the public will become the core of the U.S. political and economic game in the coming months.

"What we are witnessing is not just a personnel dispute, but a fundamental challenge to institutional independence," said the former U.S. Secretary of Labor at a seminar.

From a job report that triggered a dismissal to an appointment that concerns economic credibility, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is becoming the center of a political storm. Whether Antoni can successfully take office remains unknown. But regardless of the outcome, this incident has left deep unease in the market, academia, and the public.

Between political pressure and economic reality, the independence of the U.S. statistical system is facing unprecedented tests.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7542040088469946914/

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