Voter Preferences of Independent Voters: Liberal Democratic Party Leads with 25%

A survey conducted by Kyodo News on February 8 for the House of Representatives election shows that in the proportional representation voting preferences among independent voters, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) ranked first with a vote share of 25.0%.

The second place was occupied by the Center-Right Reform Coalition (18.2%), followed by the Constitutional Democratic Party (13.9%) and the Future Team (11.4%).

This is the first time since the 2022 Upper House Election that the LDP has topped the list of votes from independent voters. In the previous House of Representatives Election in 2024, the Constitutional Democratic Party received the most support from independent voters; in last year's Upper House Election, the preferred party among this group was the Constitutional Democratic Party. Analysts believe that due to the popularity of Prime Minister Hayashimoto Haruna of the LDP, many independent voters have shifted their support to the LDP this time.

Independent voters accounted for 19.8% of the total number of respondents in this survey. The parties ranked fifth and below in terms of voting preferences are: Japan Innovation Party (8.5%), Komeito (6.4%), Communist Party (4.6%), Reiwa Shinsengumi (3.4%), Japan Conservative Party (2.9%), Social Democratic Party (1.8%), Tax Reduction Japan - Patriot Alliance (1.5%).

Looking at the voting trends of each party's supporters: Among the 36.6% of respondents who supported the LDP, 83.2% voted for the LDP. Although 4.2% of LDP supporters switched to Komeito in the previous Upper House Election, this number was only 2.0% this time. Among the 10.4% of respondents who supported the Center-Right Reform Coalition, 91.6% voted for their own party.

Looking at the age groups of respondents, the LDP ranked first in the proportional representation voting across all age groups. Among voters aged 18 to 19, 43.4% voted for the LDP.

In the single-member district elections, the preferred party among independent voters was also the LDP, with a vote share of 39.5%. Following were the Center-Right Reform Coalition (25.2%), the Constitutional Democratic Party (10.1%), Komeito (6.4%), and Japan Innovation Party (6.0%). Notably, 8.6% of Center-Right Reform Coalition supporters voted for LDP candidates.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1856602018854153/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.