Reference News Network, September 10 report: The weekly magazine "India Today" published an article titled "Modi Firmly Controls the Political Situation" on September 8. The author is Raj Chhangani. The full text is as follows:
Narendra Modi is no stranger to adversity; in his 11 years in power, he has always been able to emerge from adversity. Now, in the second year of his third term, this prime minister faces the most severe challenge of his life, or perhaps a dilemma. One of them is that U.S. President Donald Trump became the "number one disruptor" of world order within the first six months of his second term.
Approval ratings remain roughly stable
India has become a victim because Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Indian export products, which could harm India's economic growth.
In early May this year, India went to war with Pakistan over the Pahalgam terrorist attack. India called it the "Rakshak Operation". However, Trump once again interfered, by loudly publicizing his mediation and peace efforts, downplaying India's victory narrative. In such a situation, Modi can only rebalance India's foreign policy, which has been clearly inclined towards the United States so far, and intensify its so-called "next-generation" reforms to boost the domestic economy.
At this critical moment, Modi was encouraged by the "National Mood Survey" conducted every six months by "India Today", which showed that he still received the support and trust of Indian voters. As many as 58% of respondents considered Modi's performance as prime minister to be "excellent" or "good". This number dropped by 3.8 percentage points compared to February, but remained the same as his approval rating shortly after the 2024 election. This result was also confirmed when respondents were asked who would be the most suitable person to serve as the next prime minister of India. Modi's support rate remained stable at 51.5%. His main opponent, opposition leader Rahul Gandhi, had a support rate of 24.7%, meaning Modi still led by 27 percentage points.
The National Democratic Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could also find some comfort from the latest survey.
However, the BJP also has some things to worry about. After winning big in the Haryana and Maharashtra legislative elections last year, people's enthusiasm seems to be waning. In the upcoming Bihar and West Bengal elections, the BJP's vote share has also declined. To make matters worse, in the states where the BJP is in power, including Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, the party's vote share has also declined.
Controversy over the Results of the "Rakshak Operation"
Modi also has many shortcomings. However, people admire his bold ability to handle crises, which translates into a significant surge in public opinion support. For example, during his first term, Modi successfully retaliated against a 2016 September attack by Pakistan on an Indian camp by conducting surgical strikes across the Line of Control. In November 2016, to eliminate black money, Modi abolished 500 and 1000 rupee notes in circulation. These measures solidified his image as a strong and decisive leader.
Similarly, in January 2019, four months before the election, public opinion polls showed a significant drop in Modi's support, with the BJP predicting a seat count of 202, short of a simple majority by 70 seats. However, the following month, a suicide bomber exploded a truck in Pulwama, killing 40 people. Modi ordered the Indian Air Force to conduct punitive airstrikes on Pakistani territory, which changed the election scene that May. Modi and the BJP won again: the BJP itself won 303 seats, and the National Democratic Alliance won 353 seats. This sentiment continued into the August 2019 poll, with the proportion of respondents rating Modi's performance as "good" to "excellent" rising from 54% in January to 71%.
However, despite the stronger "Rakshak Operation" against Pakistan this year, neither Modi's approval ratings nor the BJP's predicted seat count showed a significant increase. The reason may be that the Modi government seems to have lost the capital to show off in front of the United States. Especially, Trump repeatedly emphasized that it was he who facilitated the India-Pakistan ceasefire, thus avoiding a nuclear war. This contradicts India's claim: India claims that it was Pakistan who requested the ceasefire, not the United States.
Public opinion surveys reflect differing views among the public on how India handled this narrative. Nearly 55% of respondents believed that the "Rakshak Operation" was a strong response to the Pahalgam terrorist attack. 54% of respondents believed that the Modi government provided genuine and transparent information about the operation, but nearly 33% disagreed. Regarding who facilitated the ceasefire, 29% of respondents believed it was due to the pressure from the U.S. president, while only 25% believed it was a request from Pakistan after suffering heavy missile attacks from India. Nearly one-third of respondents said it was Modi himself who decided to end the war. Many BJP supporters are disappointed that the government announced a ceasefire after boasting about completely defeating Pakistan.
Moderate Economic Performance
The "Rakshak Operation" did not replace the reconstruction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya in the current government's main achievements: the support for reconstructing the temple was five percentage points higher than the operation. Following closely were infrastructure development, abolition of Article 370 of the Constitution that granted special privileges to Jammu and Kashmir, welfare programs, and a clean government.
In the list of government failures, unemployment ranks first, with 27% of respondents citing it as the top issue, followed by rice prices (21%) and economic growth (7%). This indicates that voters are increasingly concerned about the government's economic management capabilities. Although 48% of respondents believe the government has done "excellent" or "good" in dealing with economic issues, almost the same number believe it is "average" or "poor".
Now, the support for Modi and the BJP is mixed with many concerns, conditions, and limitations. As high as 72% of respondents believe the employment situation in India is "very serious" (51%) or "serious" (21%). Only one-third of respondents believe the economy will improve in the next six months, while 55% believe the economy will stagnate or worsen further. Regarding their own daily living conditions, 61% of respondents believe that current expenses are already difficult to bear.
This pessimism is also reflected in another survey result: 55% of respondents believe that family income or wages will decrease or remain the same in the next six months.
Worse still, people believe that the Modi government's economic policies favor the rich. As high as 56% of respondents believe that large corporations benefit the most from Modi's economic policies, while small businesses, farmers, and salaried workers are harmed. Despite the current government implementing the world's largest food security program, benefiting more than 800 million people, it has made little difference. Over 60% of respondents said that their economic situation has not improved or has worsened since Modi took office in 2014. Perhaps the most telling is that people's evaluations of Modi's economic performance are becoming closer to that of former Prime Minister Singh. Currently, the support rates differ by just 2 percentage points—45% for Modi and 43% for Singh. A year ago, in a poll, Modi was leading Singh by 22 percentage points.
Opposition Has Not Been a Threat
If voters have so many concerns and criticisms about the Modi government's handling of the economy, why do they still believe that Modi, the BJP, and the National Democratic Alliance can govern India? A major reason is that the opposition, especially the National People's Development Inclusive Alliance, has not yet been seen as a potential threat to the National Democratic Alliance. The vote share between the two political alliances differs by 5.8 percentage points. If today's elections were held, the National Democratic Alliance is expected to win 324 Lok Sabha seats, while the latter would only get 208 seats—26 fewer than the 234 seats in the 2024 election. Additionally, the Congress Party's support rate is only 20.8%, less than half of the BJP's 40.6%; the support rate gap between Rahul Gandhi and Modi remains as large as 26.8 percentage points. Although the former has performed well in calling on the Election Commission to stop "election fraud," he is still far from being a viable alternative to Modi, especially considering that the BJP still leads in terms of organizational strength and influence.
Despite the obstacles, Modi is still the best leader to guide India through turbulent times. Over 60% of respondents are worried that the U.S. tariffs will affect Indian exports. For Modi, it is important in this perception struggle that 54% of respondents blame the U.S. for the breakdown of Indo-U.S. trade relations, while only 22% believe India made a mistake. Voters also appreciate Modi's courage to face Trump's bullying behavior, with 61% of respondents firmly stating that India must not sacrifice its interests and should continue negotiating with the U.S.
For Modi, the urgent task is to minimize the impact of U.S. tariffs on exporters and focus on "next-generation" reforms to boost the economy. Most respondents stated that starting and running a business in India is very difficult, and the Modi government needs to ensure that "business convenience" is not just a slogan. A large portion of respondents believe that the government has not done enough to support small businesses, and bureaucracy is the main obstacle to India's economic development. Half of the respondents believe that India becoming the fourth-largest economy is just a symbolic achievement, which brings little benefit to ordinary people. One-third of respondents believe that India's much-touted global economic image does not match the quality of its infrastructure and public services. It remains to be seen whether Modi can turn all these challenges into opportunities. (Translated by Yu Cong)
Cover of the September 8 issue of "India Today" Weekly
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7548406090208231986/
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