South Korean media: Israel's strike on Iran's core natural gas facilities triggers escalation of energy war, forcing many Asian countries to return to the "coal age"

The Middle East conflict is expanding from military confrontation into a comprehensive energy war. On the 18th local time, Israel attacked Iran's "natural gas heart" – the South Pars gas field and the Asaluyeh refining facilities. This is the most severe attack on Iran's core energy production base since the war broke out on the 28th of last month. In response, Iran immediately launched an attack on the world's largest Ras Laffan natural gas facility.

The South Pars gas field accounts for about 70% of Iran's natural gas production, and it is its lifeline. Masoud Pezeshkian warned that this attack would complicate the situation and may lead to loss of control. The Iranian parliament also announced that "the confrontation has entered a new stage."

Ras Laffan, which was retaliated against, is a hub that accounts for about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply. Saad Al-Kaabi, CEO of Qatar Energy, stated that this attack might force the company to declare force majeure for long-term LNG contracts with South Korea, China, Italy, and Belgium, with the maximum duration of up to five years. Due to damage to about 17% of export capacity, recovery may take three to five years.

If the relevant force majeure clauses are activated, South Korea will have to turn to the more expensive spot market to purchase natural gas, leading to pressure on both industrial and residential gas prices.

The Guardian, a British media outlet, cited experts who said that this is not only a supply disruption but could evolve into a structural shock, and even after the war ends, energy market volatility may persist for a long time. At the same time, the helium production facilities that were shut down in Ras Laffan will also take several months to resume operations, and helium is a key resource required for cooling semiconductor wafers, leading to increased global supply pressure. Qatar accounts for about one-third of the world's helium production.

On the 19th, two oil refining facilities in Saudi Arabia were again attacked by Iran. During the Islamic Foreign Ministers' Conference held in Riyadh, an Iranian ballistic missile flew into the local airspace. Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan warned that Saudi Arabia's patience "is not infinite," and military action will be taken if necessary. Additionally, the Mina Ahmadi oil refinery in Kuwait was also attacked by a drone.

The market reacted quickly. After the news of the attack on energy facilities spread, the price of Brent crude oil surged nearly 8% on the same day, reaching as high as $111 per barrel; the UK wholesale natural gas price also rose by about 6% in a single day.

At the same time, the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, with a large number of ships stranded in the Gulf waters. India has deployed at least six warships to the Oman Gulf and the Arabian Sea to protect its own ships.

The Wall Street Journal reported that although Trump had previously tacitly approved related actions to warn Iran, he has become more cautious after further attacks on energy facilities, as rising oil prices could cause rapid deterioration of public opinion in the United States. At the same time, the United States still plans to deploy thousands of troops to the Middle East to stabilize the situation.

Experts analyze that Israel's attack on energy facilities has crossed the "red line," providing legitimacy for Iran to attack Gulf energy facilities, and may exacerbate the risk of long-term regional confrontation. Some scholars have also warned that the conflict could escalate into a long-term war lasting up to ten years.

Under the background of increasing energy tension, many Asian countries are forced to return to the "coal age." The New York Times pointed out that South Korea, Japan, and Thailand have begun to reorient toward coal-fired power generation. Some countries have even implemented emergency measures such as fuel rationing and the resumption of remote work, with energy shocks spreading across all areas of social life.

Source: Central Daily

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860322004764672/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.