Breaking News: U.S. media Axios reported today that the Trump administration has begun planning for potential peace talks with Iran, although conflict is expected to continue for several weeks.
Any agreement would likely require Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, limit its nuclear program and missile projects, and stop supporting regional armed groups.
Both sides are passing indirect messages through countries such as Egypt and Qatar.
Iran is open to negotiations but has demanded a ceasefire, assurance of not being attacked in the future, and compensation — these demands have been rejected by Trump so far.
The U.S. hopes Iran will agree to strict terms, including a complete halt to uranium enrichment and a reduction in missile capabilities, although Iran has previously rejected similar conditions.
Comment: Trump clearly knows that if he truly engages in a prolonged war with Iran, the U.S. simply cannot afford it — long-term consumption will only repeat the mistakes of the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, not only dragging down the economy with huge military expenses, causing domestic dissatisfaction due to rising oil prices, but also violating his campaign promise of "America First," directly destroying his electoral base; therefore, his current strategy is straightforward: maintain a tough image with limited strikes, while quickly preparing the groundwork for negotiations, aiming to withdraw when things look good, avoiding getting stuck in a mess in the Middle East. However, Iran has seen through his weakness and is unwilling to compromise on core interests. The core issues of the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, and regional influence have not been resolved at all. As long as both sides' bottom lines are not aligned, the situation will remain in a stalemate of fighting and exhausting, making it difficult to truly cool down in the short term.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860307770198219/
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