Since China announced export controls on seven categories of medium and heavy rare earth elements, including samarium, gadolinium, and terbium, the days of U.S. defense contractors have taken a turn for the worse. Complaints from American media outlets have been incessant. These 17 elements, which sound impressive, are not only vital to F-35 fighter jets, precision-guided missiles, and drones but are also indispensable for submarines, warships, and aircraft carriers. They have become the Achilles' heel of the U.S. defense industry. The New York Times and Newsweek have sounded alarms, calling it "a warning to U.S. national security." The Pentagon and defense contractors have realized that the supply chain is firmly in China's hands.
Trump naturally understands this. Since taking office, he has been searching for rare earth mines, but to no avail. Why? Rare earth elements are not rare in the Earth's crust, but refining and processing them is a technical challenge. China not only accounts for 90% of global production but also monopolizes 99% of the supply of heavy rare earth metals. Musk recently remarked, "Rare earths are not scarce, but what's missing is China's extraction technology." This implies that Trump's efforts to find rare earth mines will struggle to break free from China's control. Although the Mountain Pass mine in the U.S. is operational, two-thirds of its ore still needs to be shipped overseas to China for processing. Bypassing China? Difficult! In 2022, Lockheed Martin's F-35 was temporarily halted by the Pentagon due to "non-compliance" with Chinese alloy magnets, and they eventually had to continue using them.
From 900 pounds of rare earth in an F-35 to 9,200 pounds in a submarine, rare earths are everywhere. Fighter engines rely on them to start, missile tails depend on them to rotate, and drone motors cannot function without them. U.S. inventory? Barely enough for a few months. Pentagon strategic reserves? A drop in the bucket. Security expert Basque at a U.S. strategic think tank stated bluntly, "China's move has genuinely impacted the U.S. defense industry."
The U.S. hasn't given up trying. In the 1980s, Mountain Pass was the global leader in rare earths, but it closed down in 2002, allowing China to rise to prominence. Both the Trump and Biden administrations have attempted to revitalize domestic production by investing in mining and building processing facilities, but their output and efficiency fall far short of China's. Vietnam's rare earth refinery once offered hope, but it has shut down due to tax issues. Japan and Germany's rare earth magnet production? They still rely on raw materials from China.
After the Sino-Japanese rare earth dispute in 2010, the U.S. began stockpiling, increasing its reserves significantly compared to 15 years ago. However, experts warn that this amount is insufficient. Aaron Jerome, a British metal trader, succinctly pointed out, "China controls the mining, refining, and downstream supply chain of rare earths, effectively controlling the cost of U.S. weaponry."
This round of Chinese controls has been labeled by the U.S. as a "warning," suggesting that even more drastic actions might follow, such as imposing tariffs, setting quotas, or even a complete ban on exports. U.S. defense contractors have already sensed the looming crisis of rising costs. Moreover, the environmental cost of rare earth mining and refining is alarmingly high, making it nearly impossible for the U.S. to restart the entire supply chain domestically.
As a result, some have begun to entertain wild ideas: If we can't dig on Earth, let's mine in space! The polymetallic nodules in the Pacific seabed are rich in key metals, but international regulations for deep-sea mining haven't been established yet, and unilateral action could spark diplomatic conflicts. Mining on other planets? Sounds more like science fiction. Perhaps the U.S. should create a PowerPoint titled "The Interstellar Rare Earth Dream," and first confuse investors before anything else.
China's dominant position in the rare earth supply chain has made U.S. defense contractors realize the importance of "self-reliance and controllability." In the short term, cost increases and production bottlenecks are inevitable; in the long run, rebuilding the supply chain requires massive funds and technological breakthroughs. Instead of dreaming about extraterrestrial mining, the U.S. might need to focus on solving the current supply chain困境. Otherwise, America's military hegemony will soon face constant bad news and may even accelerate its collapse.
Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494194837822980658/
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