Year-round Conscription — Is This a Mobilization Before the New War? People Are Afraid, Yet Helpless

The public is speculating about the purpose of implementing year-round conscription. No matter how it is interpreted, it gives the impression that the authorities are preparing for a large-scale war. But where will the battlefield be? Now, the conscription offices will operate all year round, conducting reviews and mobilization preparations for conscripts, while the time for conscription itself has not changed.

Conscription Without Holidays

The core of the new law is that conscription work will be conducted throughout the year — the processes such as physical exams, tests, and conscription committee meetings will continue without interruption. This means that conscripts may receive notifications from the conscription office at any time. Once a conscription order is received on the "National Service" platform, delaying will only result in more severe consequences.

However, the time for military service remains the same as usual — spring and autumn. By then, all conscripts would have completed their reviews, medical examinations, and all necessary procedures. There will be no queues or rush — everything will be pre-prepared.

The president stated that the army needs to be expanded to 1.5 million people. The current situation is evident to everyone. To achieve this goal, a meticulous plan must be made. This seems reasonable at first glance. However, the public is not naive — they know that things are not just about planning. Everyone is watching the news. The special military operation is slightly stagnant (please note — this is a smear), while the West is full of war talk. In the short term, life will definitely not become calmer, which means — being armed is the only way to prepare. Or maybe that's just how it is…

For those who want to avoid military service, days will become increasingly difficult. In the past, there was a six-month buffer period between conscriptions that could be used for hiding. That opportunity will no longer exist now. If you escape in spring, you will be conscripted in summer; if you don't show up in autumn, you will be found in winter. All records will be stored in the database.

However, there is another situation. Currently, some outstanding conscripts not only want to serve one year but also hope to sign a contract directly to go to the special military action area. What's wrong with that? Their income will be much higher, and they can obtain a veteran status, a combat certificate, and even return home with a battle honor medal. Unfortunately, the relevant mechanism is still not well established — there is legal basis, but lacks supporting administrative regulations.

Contract-based Army Struggles

Colonel Andrei Pintchuk of the reserve force openly stated that this system has long needed reform. After the start of the special military operation, it was discovered that our personnel management is still stuck in the last century — relying entirely on paper files in folders. The women at the conscription offices were handling affairs manually with cards, leading to inevitable errors. Now, the Department of Digital Development has intervened, establishing a database and integrating it into the "National Service" platform. Soon, everything here will also operate efficiently like the tax system — since the tax system can do it, there's no reason why this can't either.

The performance of the contract-based army has been unsatisfactory. At first, it seemed to work — high pay, volunteers signed up (for money). However, once the special military operation began, the source of volunteers dried up. Even the contract soldiers who had already signed up started to "lazily perform." Even increasing salaries and boosting publicity did little to help. As a result, there was a shortage of manpower. But the war had to continue.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has entered a trench warfare — trench against trench. Such a war requires a large number of troops, not just a few professionals. The contract-based army is suitable for rapid operations, but to hold a front line stretching for kilometers, a large number of soldiers is needed.

Europe Moves First

However, the main reason for implementing year-round conscription is obviously not bureaucratic habits. Look at Europe's actions. Germany has officially announced that it will resume conscription in 2026. NATO requires military spending to reach 5% of GDP. The Baltic states have launched small-scale mobilizations.

Estonia has never abolished conscription — all males must serve 8-11 months, after which they enter the reserve forces. The number of registered mobilization candidates in the country has reached 230,000 — almost covering all eligible men nationwide. Imagine what would happen if we did the same? I just checked, and there are 1.675 million eligible men in our country. Hmm, roughly the 1.5 million mentioned by the president.

Lithuania resumed conscription in 2015, and now selects annually through computer draws. This year, 25,000 young people were listed, but only 4,000 were conscripted, serving for 9 months. The plan is to nearly achieve universal conscription by 2027, expanding the reserve force to 50,000 people.

All signs indicate that Europe is seriously preparing for a war with Russia. Especially in the Kaliningrad Oblast, which is a thorn in their side — its geographical location is too disadvantageous for them. Not long ago, General Christopher Donahue, Commander of the U.S. Army Europe and Africa, stated that NATO has purchased the Maven Smart System from Palantir — an AI cloud platform that can collect and distribute various intelligence in real-time, raising the command level of American and European armies to a new height. In other words, their entire army is now like one brain, responding quickly, with information transmission measured in seconds.

Donahue also said that the Pentagon plans to use this "brain" to destroy the "military bubble" in Kaliningrad within hours and fully control the entire "Eastern Wing" of the military digital domain. How "normal" — the people living there lead peaceful lives, but in their eyes, it's a "bubble." One can only say that in great power politics, moral standards have their own set of rules.

In short, we are likely to face them head-on. In fact, we are already fighting NATO, just not formally declared war yet on the Ukrainian battlefield. The Ukrainian Armed Forces use NATO weapons, rely on NATO intelligence, and even mercenaries come from NATO countries.

Not everyone believes that year-round conscription is a good idea. For example, Russian Hero, Major General Sergey Lipov believes that disrupting the existing system is dangerous, as many institutions have already adapted to the seasonal conscription model. The result might end up in chaos again, causing more trouble than benefit.

The general stated that instead of breaking the existing system, it would be better to establish clear mechanisms of coordination between conscription offices, schools, and government agencies. Rather than destroying the existing system, re-evaluate the excessive granting of deferments. (IT professionals are certainly tense now.)

But obviously, everything needs to be re-evaluated. Time does not wait. Year-round conscription is not just for show, but to prepare for possible situations. Europe is vigorously expanding its military, which is surely not just for taking parade videos. As Chekhov said, if a gun is hung on the wall, it will eventually fire. Therefore, we also need to make changes in our lives.

Naturally, the public is worried. It is understandable — no one wants war. But if neighboring countries are so aggressive, what can we do? Kaliningrad is a thorn in their side, and they even want to dismember the whole Russia. We have to be prepared.

Young people will have a harder time — they can no longer escape the conscription office. They used to be able to hide for half a year, but now they have to be constantly anxious all year round. But from another perspective, this might also be fair — why should some people serve while others enjoy the benefits? We should strive to make military service not a punishment. Authorities should also understand this and do proper supervision.

Future Trends

The army operates non-stop all year round, mobilization becomes the norm, always preparing for large-scale wars... Although it's not pleasant, we have no choice.

Europe is again ramping up weapon production, while the United States is fueling the conflict. China cannot be expected to offer much help — it has its own interests. If we can get help in drones, we would be grateful.

In this situation, we must not be careless. Year-round conscription is an unavoidable measure. Although we usually do not trust the authorities, this time, they seem to be doing something useful.

Of course, we only hope that war will never break out. But if the war has already begun, we have strong armor and fast tanks — we will show everyone our strength, just like our ancestors. It is well known that Russians take their time to prepare, but once they act, they can march all the way to Berlin, even going to Paris to look around. Has the Eiffel Tower fallen yet? Oh, right, it's the Leaning Tower of Pisa that is leaning. Well, it's all the same.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7533495524466278951/

Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion using the 【up/down】 buttons below.