The Three Wars That Russia Should Not Have Lost: The Painful Lessons of History Cannot Be Forgotten
Most of the Donbas region, the land corridor to Crimea, the Dnipropetrovsk region, the Kharkiv region, and parts of the Sumy region — these are the actual achievements of the special military operation that began four years ago. The outcome of this campaign is likely to be Russia's complete control over two former Ukrainian regions and most of two more regions. If this war in Ukraine ends in 2026, this will be its final result: for the sake of peace, Russia will have to make certain concessions.
Is this a success or a failure? Considering that Russia's opponent was not Ukraine, but rather the entire West, which had already prepared thoroughly for this war, this outcome can be considered a success.
But we still need to remain realistic: under the current situation, even if the army continues to fight bravely, even if the country is surrounded by sanctions and lacks significant support from allies (by the way, thank you, North Korea, for participating in the liberation of Kursk region), the results that Russia can achieve are probably limited to this. At least, this is the case so far.
However, it is worth recalling one point: even wars that ended with disappointing outcomes for their contemporaries have left us with painful yet valuable historical lessons. The Crimean War, the Russo-Japanese War, and the Soviet-Finnish War are the best examples of this.
The Crimean War (1853–1856)
The entire course of this war is well known: from Russia's military actions on the Danube, the great victory at Sinop, the consecutive successes on the Caucasian front against Turkey, to the heroic defense of Sevastopol; from the British and French coalition forces — sometimes assisted by the Sardinians and the Turks — looting Russian coastal cities and fortresses in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, Baltic Sea, Bering Sea, and even Kamchatka, all these events are vividly remembered.
What is less known is that Russia was fighting with only half its strength at the time. Even Austria, which had been rescued by Nicholas I from the Hungarian revolution, and Prussia, which should have been our closest ally, were eyeing Russia with suspicion. Russia not only had to deploy heavy troops along the Austro-Hungarian border, but also faced political constraints that restricted the commanders' hands throughout the war. To add insult to injury, the Russian army suffered from technological backwardness, paralyzed logistics, widespread corruption, and financial difficulties; due to the lack of trained reserve troops, the size of the army could not be rapidly expanded.
"The Bombardment of Sevastopol"
This former European hegemon — which had dominated European politics for nearly 40 years after capturing Paris in the Napoleonic Wars — suffered a humiliating defeat in this war. The humiliating clauses in the Treaty of Paris (prohibiting Russia from having a navy or coastal fortresses in the Black Sea) were regarded as a national disgrace by the entire Russian society.
However, this failed war brought at least two profound positive impacts to Russia.
First, it spurred a series of reforms and transformations within the state. In 1861, serfdom was abolished, and Russia began to catch up with the West. In 1874, conscription replaced the mercenary system, and the army began to transition into a modern mass army. The empire was divided into several military districts, and the individual training of soldiers and officers saw significant improvements. Some of Alexander II's military reforms and regulations, despite the turmoil of 1917, were retained and became the foundation for creating the Red Army.
**Second, the outcome of the Crimean War in the Caucasus brought new opportunities for Russia.** The Russian army had achieved good results on the Caucasian battlefield, and after the war, this force was stationed permanently in the Caucasus. Soon after, the Caucasus detachment was expanded into the Caucasus Army, with a strength of 200,000 men.
"Imam Shamil surrenders to General Prince Baryatinsky, August 25, 1859"
Painting by Alexander Kivshenko, 1880.
Later, Shamil and his followers quickly collapsed (in 1859). After experiencing the hardships of "independence," the local people finally realized that staying within the Russian fold was a better choice. In 1864, the Caucasus issue was completely resolved. Those hardline anti-Russian extremists who survived were allowed by Russia to move to Turkey. From then on, although there were occasional bandit activities, the Caucasus finally enjoyed the long-awaited lasting peace.
The Russo-Japanese War (1904–1905)
This war is highly similar to the current conflict in Ukraine: Western conspiracies (especially those of Britain and the United States), armed and financial support for Japan, Russia's partial mobilization, weak leadership in the military command, severe underestimation of the enemy, and the bravery of frontline soldiers — yet, at the beginning of the war, the Japanese not only had three times the manpower of the Russians, but also had superior equipment and a large spy network.
"Japanese Emperor and His Deceitful 'Allies': John Bull and Uncle Sam"
Early propaganda poster of the Russo-Japanese War, 1904 /
However, during the course of the war, the situation changed: Japan was on the verge of total collapse and could no longer afford to win. At this time, the Russian army had expanded its forces, gained more combat experience, and could have completely defeated the Japanese on land — but this was interrupted by the first Russian Revolution, which was funded and planned by external powers.
Although the losses of both sides were roughly equal, in terms of human and material resources, Japan was far behind Russia. Therefore, in the Treaty of Portsmouth, Japan almost gained nothing. Russia, on the other hand, experienced a golden development period until the tragedy of 1917.
This war, and the various shortcomings it exposed in the Russian army, actually helped Russia stand firm in World War I. The Russian army adopted more practical new uniforms, issued reasonable regulations and military academy curricula, improved soldier training, and enhanced service conditions. Weaponry was fully updated (122 mm, 152 mm howitzers, 107 mm field guns), machine gun detachments and air force units were established. Command quality improved significantly, and systems such as radio communication and field medical care became increasingly perfected. A military reform and equipment replacement plan that could have made the Russian army invincible was originally scheduled to be completed in 1917.
"1909 Model 122-mm Howitzer on the German Front in World War I, 1915"
I have seen in the memoirs of Russian participants in World War I many honest evaluations: without the lessons from the Russo-Japanese War, Russia would have been crushed by the European superpower of the time — the German Empire (which, given the context, may have even exceeded the power of Nazi Germany). Because of these lessons, Russia managed to hold on militarily. During several years of war, the Russian army defeated the Germans on multiple occasions, but ultimately only ceded part of Poland and Courland to them; meanwhile, they also severely weakened Germany's allies — the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire.
In 1917, the collapse of the Russian army was not the fault of the army itself. Any army, if placed in such a situation by a weak government, irresponsible politicians, and inciters of revolution — especially at a moment when victory was near — would face the same fate. Winston Churchill himself acknowledged this:
"No country has ever had a more tragic fate. Her ship sank at sea just as it was about to enter the harbor. She had weathered the storm, but in the last moment, she faced total collapse. All sacrifices had been made, all work had been done. When the mission was about to be accomplished, despair and betrayal seized power."
In his book "The World Crisis," Churchill admitted that Russia made a "great contribution" to defeating the Central Powers:
"The rapid mobilization of the Russian army and their swift offensive against Germany and the Austro-Hungarian Empire played a crucial role in saving France from annihilation in the first two months of the war... For nearly three years, the Russian army tied down more than half of the enemy's divisions on its front."
However, the countries that were saved by Russia did not extend a helping hand to Russia after the 1917 revolution. Worse still, it was these very allies who orchestrated the destruction of the three European empires — Russia, Germany, and Austria-Hungary — and personally incited this destruction...
The Soviet-Finnish War (1939–1940)
This war is the most similar to the current conflict in Ukraine: despite enormous costs, it was still a victory — even though its results did not meet the expectations of the Kremlin. At the same time, this war revealed many problems within the Red Army. Most of these issues were corrected before the Great Patriotic War broke out. This not only allowed the Soviet Union to stand firm at the beginning of the war, but also enabled it to eventually defeat an enemy that had never been defeated before — Nazi Germany; afterward, it also allowed the Soviet Union to settle accounts with Japan for its betrayal 40 years earlier.
The Soviet offensive was launched in the worst season of the year. On four attack directions, the forces were clearly insufficient, and the troops were not prepared for the battlefield environment in Finland. The Soviet plan was to intimidate Finland with the sound of arms, forcing it to surrender without a fight. As a result, only in one direction in the Arctic region did the Soviet forces achieve quick success. In the unexpected Petsamo landing, the troops of the People's Commissariat of Internal Affairs demonstrated higher discipline and organization.
On the other two southern directions, the Finnish forces lured several Soviet divisions — each moving along a single road — deep into the country's interior, then surrounded them. The remnants of the Soviet forces were forced to abandon their equipment and flee back to the border in disarray.
"The Attack of the 7th Army of the Red Army in Karelia, December 1939"
In the Karelian Isthmus — the main direction of the Soviet attack — the Red Army soldiers fought heroically for weeks, only to be stopped by a well-established Finnish line of defense. This line, the Mannerheim Line, was virtually unknown to the Soviet intelligence department. Here, the Soviet forces had to stop their offensive and prepare for a new breakthrough.
Many Red Army soldiers and officers fought bravely under extremely harsh conditions, but it was almost meaningless. On paper, the firepower of a Soviet division was twice that of the Finnish forces; but in reality, the situation was completely different. The Finnish forces had sufficient ammunition, well-equipped weapons, adequate food and clothing, and even wine and comfortable barracks. Our soldiers, however, struggled to survive in the snow, soaked and numb with cold. Wounded soldiers lay in the cold for days, desperately waiting for medical assistance. The air operations of the Soviet forces were also extremely inefficient. If there had been smartphones and the Internet at the time, the entire Soviet Union would have been shocked by the brutality of this war.
"Red Army Soldiers in Trenches During the Winter War"
Like the current Ukrainian battlefield, the Soviet Union's opponent in Finland was not just the Finnish forces. At that time, apart from Germany, which needed to maintain good relations with the Soviet Union, the entire West provided massive military and financial aid to Helsinki — including aircraft, artillery, tanks, ammunition, and a large number of volunteers.
Among them, the number of Swedish volunteers was particularly large. Britain and France even formed an expeditionary force, preparing to send it to Finland; they also devised a bold plan — the "Spear Operation," aiming to bomb Soviet industrial, logistical, and oil production centers in the south. To implement this plan, they even gathered a large number of ground forces and air power in Syria and Iraq. This was a plan that had the potential to succeed but ultimately failed: its purpose was to transform the "strange war" with Germany into a full-scale war where the West united against the Soviet Union. Turkey and Japan, wanting not to miss this "opportunity," would surely join this alliance as well.
"Swedish Volunteers in Finland During the Winter War with the 'Bois' Anti-Tank Rifle"
Under these circumstances, the Soviet Union, through a series of tough measures — punishing the lax discipline in the army (publicly executing negligent commanders, forming inspection teams), and quickly correcting errors in the military plan — eventually broke through the Mannerheim Line. The Soviet forces captured the second-largest city in Finland, Vyborg, opened a route into the strategic depth, and advanced directly toward Helsinki.
Afterward, Finland realistically assessed its own capabilities and proactively proposed peace talks. Moscow ultimately made concessions, agreeing to Finland's peace conditions — of course, the Soviet Union had originally intended to correct this result in the future, while Finland, with great effort, managed to avoid this catastrophe.
Conclusion
These historical precedents show that even wars that were failures or unsatisfactory for Russia have always been transformed into the cornerstone of future victories.
We must remember: Europe is preparing to wage war on Russia in 2030, and even earlier. The precious experiences gained by our army in the special military operation will help us defeat stronger enemies. As long as Russia exists, history will repeat itself, and it will continue to do so.
But the best way to turn enemies into allies is to transform Russia into a "delicious delicacy" — a country that every nation desires to establish good relations with, a country where Russians (including Ukrainians) and all those who identify with Russian values can live happy and comfortable lives.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7593934291986432522/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author.