According to foreign media reports, Japan has decided to deploy the 12-type long-range anti-ship missiles in Kumamoto City on Kyushu Island. In response to this move, Professor Anatoly Koshkin of the Eastern Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences publicly told the media that the deployment of these missiles has made Japan completely embark on a path of re-militarization.

The missile Japan is deploying is a large-scale improvement of the 12-type anti-ship missile. Although the name remains unchanged, from the aerodynamic shape and performance parameters, it is already a completely new model. The early 12-type anti-ship missile was a high-subsonic model without stealth capabilities, featuring typical X-shaped wings, with a range of only 200 kilometers. However, the new model has a stealthy shape, similar to the American AGM-158C and the European Storm Shadow missile, and its wings have been changed to a pair of glide wings.

Japan has not disclosed changes in the missile's propulsion system, but based on the 900-kilometer range data, it is certain that it has adopted a small turbofan engine. This kind of deception has also occurred in other countries' weapon development. The most famous example is the Soviet Tu-22M Backfire bomber, which, although officially called an improved version of the Tu-22 bomber, was essentially a completely new aircraft from the inside out. Changing the name was merely to circumvent the US-Soviet arms control treaties.

【The original 12-type was a rather unremarkable model】

According to data from Wikipedia, the future range of the 12-type missile may be further extended to 1000 or even 1500 kilometers, exceeding the horizon. For such anti-ship missiles to be effective, they must be coordinated with beyond-the-horizon reconnaissance and surveillance methods. Drones, submarines, or satellites can act as intelligence nodes in front, transmitting information about the position, course, and nature of enemy warships back via satellite data links to prepare for the missile's launch parameters. During the missile's flight, the intelligence node can continuously update the target data through satellite communication. Such capabilities are possessed by the United States and China, but Japan currently does not have them. Therefore, the 12-type anti-ship missile is a firepower element of the US-Japan joint military machine and must rely on the US intelligence and reconnaissance system to function effectively.

【The improved 12-type is now a completely new model】

Of course, there is another tactical approach. In Northeast Asia, the locations of China, Russia, and North Korea's naval bases and shipyards are well known. The 12-type anti-ship missile can be fired directly at these fixed targets. When approaching the destination, the terminal guidance radar can be turned on to intelligently select the most valuable target for an attack.

A 900-kilometer range poses a significant threat to China, North Korea, and Russia. By measuring the map, it can be found that if the missile is launched from the center of Kumamoto City, it can cover the main naval bases and shipyards along the northern and southern coasts of North Korea. As a road-mobile missile, the 12-type can advance to the westernmost point of Kyushu, Shigetsu Island, from where it can cover the Dalian Shipyard, Qingdao Base, Shanghai Shipyard, and Jiangnan Shipyard, as well as Zhoushan Base. Moving to Tottori Prefecture can also cover Vladivostok. After the range is extended to 1500 kilometers, from Kumamoto City, it can cover the Huludao submarine manufacturing base. To cover Vladivostok, moving to the western coast of Honshu is sufficient.

From this perspective, the deployment of the 12-type anti-ship missile indeed violates Japan's Peace Constitution. Professor Anatoly Koshkin's statement makes a lot of sense, but it also carries some interests of Russia.

In the five countries and six parties of Northeast Asia, there are three nuclear powers, one medium nuclear power, and Japan, if it wants to return to militarism, must first worry about nuclear strikes from China, Russia, and North Korea. Russia and North Korea have never committed to not using nuclear weapons first. Although China has made such a commitment, the Japanese, who have a history of bloodshed, dare not touch the red line. China has strategic warning capabilities. Once Japan fires the first 12-type missile toward China, it will face a deluge of "Dongfeng Express" (missiles). China can abandon the 12-type launch units in Kumamoto and directly strike Tokyo's central area, turning the Imperial Palace in the moat and the National Diet Building outside the moat into ruins.

【The Imperial Palace in Tokyo's central area and the National Diet Building south of the moat】

After the war, Japan's Self-Defense Forces were built under the full guidance of the United States, entirely to support America's Northeast Asian strategy, with almost no overstepping. During the Cold War, the task of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces was to defend the homeland and help the Americans with anti-submarine operations. After the Cold War, the main task was to prepare for the counterattack and interception of North Korean missiles, as well as to support the US military in case of a Taiwan Strait conflict. When China's military strength rose significantly and the US declined relatively, Japan became a so-called defense partner and was pushed to the forefront of the confrontation with China. Throughout this process, Japan had no initiative at all. Whether to militarize and how to do so were all carried out according to the US roadmap. Criticizing Japan alone cannot reflect the whole truth.

【Japan's militarization has always operated within the framework set by the United States】

Russia's concern and anxiety about Japan's renewed militarization mainly come from the serious lack of military and economic strength in the Russian Far East. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian population in the Primorsky Krai kept moving westward to Europe, and the Russian Pacific Fleet also experienced a drastic decline. If we only consider tactical and technical capabilities, a small part of the South Korean Navy could annihilate the entire Russian Far East fleet. In such a situation, any strengthening measures Japan takes against the sea would trigger alarms in Russian strategic research circles.

Reliant on its own strength, Russia sees no hope of revival of its Far East military forces in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the alliance between China, Russia, and North Korea against the US-Japan-South Korea alliance is Russia's greatest hope. Although North Korea speaks boldly, self-preservation is its biggest achievement. The stability of Northeast Asia mainly depends on how China plays its role. If China and the US-Japan-South Korea alliance manage to ease their relations, Russia will inevitably worry that the pressure might shift to itself.

From the current signs, such easing is not impossible. Trump, in order to visit China and reach a trade agreement with China, was willing to ignore the pro-independence forces in Taiwan. Once China and the US find a suitable way to coexist, Sino-Japanese reconciliation is inevitable. Looking back at history, every time the US sends signals of easing relations with China, the Japanese government is the first to step onto the path of Sino-Japanese friendship. If Sino-Japanese relations improve, then the 12-type anti-ship missile with a range of 1000 kilometers will not be something China needs to worry about. After all, the "Dongfeng Express" plus J-20 and two aircraft carriers are enough to keep the Japanese political circle rational.

Thus, Russia will worry that the common pressure it faces will have no one to share. If these 12-type missiles are used to block the exit channels of the Pacific Fleet, Russia will have no choice but to endure or go to war.

Therefore, Russia's warning should be taken seriously, but there is no need to be overly anxious.

https://sputniknews.cn/20250806/1066723037.html

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535648258720121382/

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