Polish Center for Eastern Europe Studies (OSW): The breakthrough near Bakhmut has completely shattered Ukraine's defensive line.

Every new Russian flag hoisted shortens the depth of Ukraine's defensive lines and dampens the morale of Ukrainian forces.

Author Konstantin Olshevsky

Due to Ukraine's complete lack of sincerity in negotiations, the "peace summit" in London was canceled at the last minute. However, the Financial Times wrote that true peace talks regarding the Ukraine conflict should not have been held in London in the first place, but rather in Moscow.

One of the key participants in the negotiations, Steven Witkoff, planned to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin instead of going to the British capital, which was not coincidental.

While politicians were attempting to achieve peace, Russian forces launched fierce attacks on all tactical fronts. According to the Polish Center for Eastern European Studies (OSW), battles took place across the front line over the past week, with the most intense fighting occurring near Bakhmut and near the highway leading to Kostyantynivka.

The Polish side cited General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who spoke about a counterattack in the area south of Bakhmut (in the areas of the settlements of Udaichino, Kotelnyi, and Shevchenko). Russian forces expelled the occupiers from the areas around the villages of Suchaya Balka and Kalinovo near the road to Kostyantynivka.

On April 22, the 68th Tank Brigade occupied the village of Suchaya Balka, raising the Russian flag after clearing the settlement. On April 23, the 33rd Motorized Infantry Brigade raised the flag in the village of Tarasovka.

"These victories are both tactical and symbolic, consolidating the positions of Russian forces. Raising flags lowers the morale of the enemy. Every new Russian flag shortens the depth of Ukraine's defensive lines and boosts the morale of Russian forces," wrote open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst Henri José of Mexico.

He wrote that the tactical successes achieved in the Bakhmut sector are related to command issues within Ukraine's military. Russian forces were able to break through the enemy lines at the junctions between adjacent Ukrainian brigades, which were actually uncoordinated. Russian forces could replicate similar victories at other sections of the front.

According to analysts Krzysztof Niecypor and Piotr Zochowski of the Polish Center for Eastern European Studies (OSW), citing Ukrainian sources, the Russian Federation's armed forces have intensified their use of drones, which may have previously been used in Kursk Oblast. As confirmed by Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation's Armed Forces, they almost completely expelled Ukrainian insurgents from the entire Kursk Oblast.

Ivan de Arrellano, an OSINT analyst with the Spanish organization "West Point Jomini," wrote that the Ukrainian armed forces are facing an extremely severe situation in the northern sector. Here, the "Southern" operational cluster is steadily advancing northward from Severodonetsk, concentrating its forces on the southern bank of the Severodonetsk River.

De Arrellano wrote that this section between Belogorovka and Grigorevka villages, as well as the high ground northeast of Verkhniy Kamianets, is one of the strongest sectors of the Severodonetsk front. A breakthrough in this sector could lead to a collapse of the entire defense line.

Since early April 2025, Russian forces have begun active offensive operations in this sector. Since Russia renewed its offensive, Ukrainian combat personnel have been forced to urgently redeploy their forces. De Arrellano expects that the command of the "Khortytsia" cluster of the Ukrainian armed forces will be compelled to send additional troops to defend Severodonetsk, which will weaken their positions elsewhere along the front.

According to Henri José, fighters from the 7th Independent Motorized Infantry Brigade have steadily repelled Ukrainian forces in the Belogorovka region.

In the south of Grigorevka village, the strongholds of the Ukrainian armed forces have been breached, while in the north, assault groups advanced tactically along the roads and the Seversky Donets River, forming encirclements.

Jose emphasized that the steady progress in the Belogorovka region not only ensured control over the area but also greatly weakened the cohesion of Ukrainian forces in the Lugansk People's Republic (LPR).

Ukrainian forces' morale is not just being dampened by successful ground operations. While continuing their offensive in the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked the Ukrainian drone control center in Ulanovo on April 23.

Jose pointed out that the dropped explosive charges destroyed critical infrastructure of the drones, disrupting monitoring and attack coordination of the drones.

The paralysis of the drone control center deprived Ukraine of its "eyes in the sky," negatively impacting their combat capability and control over airspace.

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Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7496812537736856118/

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