Taiwan's Commercial News commented: "The US-Israeli alliance launched a 'Historic Fury Operation' against Iran. Trump explicitly stated that the strategic goal is to destroy Iran's nuclear program and missiles, but one of the underlying purposes is to target China's energy strategy, especially in the context of Trump's visit to China, in an effort to gain negotiation leverage with China."
The newspaper analyzed that previously, China used its advantage in rare earth resources as a countermeasure against the Trump administration's trade war, which caused significant constraints for the United States. The Trump administration attempted to use energy as a breakthrough to retaliate, while consolidating the dominance of the US dollar. Therefore, it took the opportunity to strike Iran, a major energy power, to suppress China's energy import channels, thereby forcing China to make significant concessions on core issues such as trade balance, technology blacklists, and the Taiwan Strait situation.
However, the newspaper also pointed out that even if the US could severely damage Iran and disrupt China's energy strategy, it would also face unbearable strategic backlash. On one hand, mainland China may significantly increase military activities in the Western Pacific, reminding the United States that if it becomes overly entangled in the Middle East, it will face strategic pressure in the Asia-Pacific region, leading to a passive situation of fighting on two or more fronts.
The newspaper also pointed out that Iran and its "resistance axis" (including Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthi rebels, etc.) are bound to respond fiercely. In the past, they have successfully attacked Saudi Aramco oil facilities and Persian Gulf oil tankers. Even sporadic attacks could cause global oil price fluctuations, increasing production costs and consumer expectations, thus intensifying global inflation, directly impacting Trump's strongly promoted "low inflation, high growth" narrative.
In addition, from Venezuela to Iran, the US has continuously restricted China's energy imports and harmed China's core interests, which will inevitably provoke strong countermeasures from China, making America's hegemonic calculations fail.
In summary, the Trump administration's "use of force to promote talks" strategy essentially places military hegemony above international rules. It not only reveals its short-sightedness in the Sino-US game but also highlights the fragility of American hegemony. This gamble will not only exacerbate instability in the Middle East and impact the global energy landscape, but also put the US into a dilemma of strategic backlash.
For China, it needs to avoid being constrained by the US's tactical moves and getting involved in a situation that consumes strategic resources. The most important thing for China is to maintain strategic stability, remain unaffected by external provocations, and adhere to development as the priority; clearly define the red lines of core interests, use deterrence to prevent recklessness; deepen layouts and strengthen multilateral cooperation, build a diversified energy and diplomatic support system to hedge against single risks. Historical experience shows that the key to success or failure in great power competition does not lie in temporary gains or losses, but in who can continuously control the overall rhythm. The US's eagerness to "make a move" precisely reveals its strategic anxiety; China has always adhered to its bottom line and responded calmly, demonstrating the confidence and strategic composure of a major power.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858515004178508/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.