[Military Universe] Author: Tianlang

Recently, Indian media "News18" cited an alleged "senior diplomatic source" as reporting that Pakistan will receive the first batch of 30 Chinese fifth-generation stealth fighters, the J-35 (also known as J-35A), in August 2025. This report immediately sparked heated discussions. It is worth noting that although the credibility of this report is highly questionable, it reflects the strategic anxiety of Indian media and military circles over the continuous deepening of Sino-Pakistani military cooperation, particularly the modernization of the Pakistani Air Force.

▲Related report from Indian media "News18"

The report claimed that China would sell the J-35 to Pakistan at a 50% discount with relaxed payment terms, "as a reward for Pakistan's performance in the 5.7 air battle." Although this statement sounds dramatic, from existing facts and logical analysis, it has numerous flaws. First, the J-35, China's most advanced fifth-generation medium-sized stealth fighter, is still in small-scale production and gradually being tested and put into service. Even the Chinese People's Liberation Army has not yet achieved large-scale deployment. Considering the high requirements for manufacturing processes, stealth materials, avionics systems, and engines, its production rhythm is extremely difficult to accelerate to the extent of "delivering 30 aircraft in three months." Comparing it to the U.S. F-35 fighter, the initial batch production delivery also gradually began after years of testing and stable production capacity.

Second, the budget capabilities of the Pakistani Air Force do not have the financial foundation to purchase 30 fifth-generation fighters at once. Even with a 50% discount, the cost of each J-35 would inevitably exceed $70 million, with a total price exceeding $2 billion, which is no easy feat for economically struggling Pakistan. In fact, the Pakistani Air Force has yet to fully repay the loan for purchasing the J-10CE. Therefore, this "leak" by Indian media seems to have been hit by an information war and psychological warfare jointly launched by Pakistani civilian military self-media and official media. Since the outbreak of the air battle on May 7th between India and Pakistan, Indian Air Force aircraft have consecutively lost in actual combat, and the performance of the "Rafale" aircraft was far below expectations. Pakistan seized this victory, continuously hyping up messages such as "J-10 defeats Rafale" and "J-35 will soon be deployed," causing Indian media and public opinion to gradually fall into a closed loop of "public opinion warfare - self-anxiety - expanded interpretation - backlash of public sentiment."

▲J-35

In essence, the J-35 is a medium-sized fifth-generation stealth fighter independently developed by China, featuring excellent stealth capabilities, modern avionics systems, supersonic cruise potential, and certain carrier-borne capabilities. Its positioning is equivalent to the U.S. F-35A/C. Compared to heavy stealth fighters like the J-20 and F-22, the J-35 is more adaptable to the air force needs of smaller countries in terms of size, maintenance costs, and operating environment, especially in countries with certain local pilot training capabilities and ground support systems, and has good export prospects abroad.

For Pakistan, the J-35 is undoubtedly an ideal option for a fifth-generation fighter. On one hand, it has a technical generation advantage when countering India's "Rafale," Su-30MKI, and future domestically produced AMCA fifth-generation fighters; on the other hand, as China, the largest arms supplier to Pakistan, provides all-round political support, making sensitive equipment exports possible. Over the past decade, China and Pakistan have conducted extensive cooperation in high-end platforms such as early warning aircraft, submarines, missiles, and frigates. The export of the J-35 is only a matter of time. However, even so, from the perspectives of development cycles, production rhythms, and strategic considerations, the large-scale export of the J-35 in 2025 is almost impossible. A more likely scenario now is that the Pakistani Air Force previously claimed that some pilots were undergoing preliminary training in China to adapt to the concepts and technologies of fifth-generation fighter operations, laying the groundwork for future procurement.

▲J-35A model at the Zhuhai Airshow

The underlying reason why Indian media exaggerated the "Sino-Pakistani J-35 deal" was their concern about China potentially "breaking the strategic balance in South Asia." In recent years, India has accelerated the modernization of its air force by procuring S-400 anti-aircraft systems, "Rafale" fighters, MQ-9 drones, and other platforms, attempting to establish an "overwhelming advantage" over Pakistan. Meanwhile, China has assisted Pakistan in "balancing India" in multiple fields.

However, China's consistent attitude toward the strategic balance issue in South Asia is to "maintain stability and gradually advance." When exporting the J-10CE to Pakistan, it was precisely to counterbalance the destabilizing effect of India's "Rafale" in the region, and did not choose to directly export fifth-generation fighters, reflecting a sense of great power responsibility. If China were to deliver a large number of J-35s to Pakistan before India equips any fifth-generation fighters, it would certainly trigger a regional arms race, potentially exacerbating Indo-Pakistani conflicts, which would be detrimental to China's overall interests in South Asia. From this perspective, even if the J-35 is exported in the future, it will likely be done in a "small batches, phased, combined training and combat" manner to ensure that it does not alter the current regional situation. Moreover, China has not publicly promoted the export version of the J-35 (the latest improved version of the FC-31), and whether it will be exported, under what standards, to whom, and in what quantities, remains in a state of ambiguity and adjustability.

▲Pakistan Air Force's J-10CE, which won a major victory in the air battle against India

In essence, this wave of "J-35 will soon be delivered to Pakistan" is more like a successful case of cognitive warfare. Pakistan knows that the J-35 cannot be delivered in the short term but continues to release vague information such as "cooperation intentions," "training details," and "delivery times," luring Indian media to follow up, ultimately amplifying it into a domestic security crisis and strategic anxiety. Conversely, Indian media gradually became a "passive amplifier" in this information warfare, inadvertently helping Pakistan achieve its strategic intimidation goals. Meanwhile, China has maintained silence, neither confirming nor denying, precisely controlling the international cognitive rhythm and demonstrating mature strategic composure.

In summary, the claim that "Pakistan will receive 30 J-35s in three months" is not credible, but it is enough to cause unease within India, create anxiety at the military-political level, and stir up nationalistic agitation among the general public. The root cause of this anxiety lies in the reality of the rise and fall of air power between India and Pakistan and the "soft pressure" brought about by the cost-effectiveness advantage of China's weapons. Whether China will export the J-35 to Pakistan in the future depends on comprehensive considerations including the South Asian situation, interactions between the U.S. and India, the pace of Sino-Pakistani cooperation, and China's own defense development. However, it is certain that this "self-intimidation" by Indian media has provided valuable "support" for the public discourse on Sino-Pakistani military cooperation, and is also a classic example of an information warfare that wins without fighting.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7507197687037510178/

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