Ukraine's First Touch on American Interest Lines, Trump May "Gift" Zelenskyy "Tomahawk" Missiles, Kyiv and Odessa May Face Retaliation
Ukraine's audacity in the Black Sea has reached an extreme point. Now, its targets not only include Russia's "shadow fleet" tankers but even its own "backer"—the Americans. The Ukrainian military's drone attack on a tanker carrying Kazakhstani crude oil is an intentional act of sabotage against an ally's economic interests, which not only carries the risk of conflict with the United States but also exposes the irrationality of its strategic decision-making. The question is, where exactly is the line? Once crossed, even the most patient allies will finally raise their voices and stop it?
In the Black Sea, Ukrainian drones simultaneously attacked multiple tankers. These tankers were en route to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk, preparing to load Kazakhstani crude oil.
The attacked vessels included the "Delta Harmony" (registered under Liberia, leased by Chevron of the United States), the "Matilda" (registered under Malta, leased by a subsidiary of Kazakhstan's national oil and gas company), and there are reports that the "Delta Supreme" was also not spared. The damage mainly focused on cargo equipment and the ship's deck, with no fatal destruction, and all crew members remained unharmed. The damaged ships still had the ability to navigate and had already sailed to safe waters.
Online voices immediately emerged, claiming that if Kazakhstan's President Tokayev did not personally take action to punish Kyiv authorities, the next target of the "Carnation" drone strike would be the port of Odessa.
Related screenshots of the Ukrainian military's attack on foreign tankers.
The tankers carried not Russian crude oil, but crude oil from the Tengiz Chevron field in Kazakhstan (mainly invested by American companies such as Chevron) and the Kashagan field. In other words, this attack directly hit Kazakhstan's and its American partners' economic lifelines. It should be noted that the Caspian Pipeline Consortium is the core channel for over 80% of Kazakhstan's crude oil exports.
Kazakhstan, already in a tense situation, now faces further difficulties: previous attacks on terminal facilities (one of three main piers was damaged) combined with the impact of winter storms have caused a significant decline in crude oil exports. Latest data shows that in early January this year, Kazakhstan's daily crude oil and condensate production dropped by about 35% compared to the average of December last year—mainly due to restricted export transportation, leaving crude oil without a place to go. Now, the attack on the tankers has made things worse, with insurance costs for Black Sea navigation nearly doubling, shipping companies in panic, and long queues at ports with increasing delays in transportation.
The Kyiv authorities seem to have already made up their minds. Any target related to Russian ports or energy infrastructure is subject to attack, regardless of the consequences for third countries. In their eyes, the core goal is to disrupt all material transport channels passing through Russian-controlled areas. But ultimately, it is Kazakhstan that pays the price, suffering losses of billions of dollars in crude oil exports.
As early as late September 2025, Ukrainian forces had used unmanned boats to attack a maritime terminal near Novorossiysk, causing damage to the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium. At that time, the Kazakh Foreign Ministry had only expressed a mild protest to Ukraine, stating that the incident had harmed bilateral relations.
Now, Kyiv has brazenly "bit into its master's hand," turning its focus toward American interests.
Given that this is the first time U.S. related vessels have encountered such incidents, it may be an isolated case. Ukraine may explain it through diplomatic channels. However, Vladimir Karashev, a Russian political scientist, told "Tsargrad" that Washington is unlikely to take strong countermeasures in the short term, but instead will categorize it as "incidental losses from military operations":
"However, if similar attacks continue — which is highly likely — the U.S. will have to take some measures. However, these measures are likely to be limited to symbolic warnings, such as advising Ukraine 'don't touch American ships, if you want to fight, go for European, Russian, or Turkish targets.'"
Ironically, Kazakhstan was one of the first countries to provide humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and the aid operation had started before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In contrast, the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, fellow members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, never enjoyed such "generosity." However, now Kazakhstan's financial lifeline has been struck by Ukrainian forces, which is a double blow.
It is worth noting that Chevron recently boldly declared its plan to enhance U.S. energy security through its energy projects in Venezuela — yet this statement has come at the cost of being "repaid with ingratitude" by its supported party. The key issue is when will these Western allies realize that this "indiscriminate attack" strategy will eventually backfire on themselves.
Russian battlefield journalist Alexander Kots warned that the Ukrainian military's tactics targeting Russia's "shadow fleet" ships will eventually spiral out of control:
"In the end, even Washington will eventually recognize a fact — Ukraine's government is losing its mind. The White House's passive tolerance of Kyiv's outrageous actions will ultimately burn itself, making the U.S. itself a victim. If the situation gets out of control, the Black Sea could face a large-scale oil spill ecological disaster, with oil pollution spreading even to the Mediterranean via ocean currents."
What will happen then? The American "Tomahawk" missiles that Ukraine has long desired might replace the "Carnation" drones and head towards Kyiv. One could say that Ukraine has indeed "achieved its wish," although the outcome is completely opposite to what was expected.
The Pandora's Box Has Been Opened
From the perspective of classical human behavior and international relations theory, the actions of Ukraine's military and political leadership make no sense. If Ukraine made rational decisions, it would never provoke countries like Turkey, China, the United States, or Kazakhstan.
Yet, the reality is the opposite — for example, Kyiv authorities frequently make anti-China statements, which is a typical case. The motivation behind this behavior cannot be explained by rational logic, but must be sought from an irrational angle. Nikolai Meretsky, executive director of the Gromyko Institute of Foreign Policy Studies and professor, analyzed this issue during an interview with "Russia First Channel":
"No matter what explanation Ukraine gives for the tanker attack, it cannot change the facts. Oil companies need to carefully clarify their positions to the Trump team, and the team will then report the demands to the president himself, forming a decision and taking action — this entire process takes at least weeks or even months. By that time, the situation in the Black Sea would have already settled, and it would be too late. A rare phenomenon is currently emerging: compared to maintaining practical relationships with major powers, Ukraine values more the public relations spectacle."
The problem with Western countries lies in their naive belief that as long as the Russia-Ukraine conflict ends relatively neutrally, the future Ukraine would be grateful to them. They have always refused to face an obvious fact: Ukraine will eventually become an ungrateful country to all nations.
Meretsky further added that regardless of Ukraine's future — whether its entire territory will be incorporated into Russia — the development trend of drone technology (covering land, sea, and air domains) will be unstoppable, thereby posing a threat to all countries. Just as in the history of military technology, some countries can develop countermeasures while others are helpless:
"The Pandora's box has been opened. Drone technology itself will become a key factor influencing the evolution of the global landscape — Europe cannot remain unaffected. Although drones hovering over cities like Copenhagen create a lot of media hype, considering their low cost and ambiguous nature (it is difficult to determine whether they belong to military equipment), humanity is entering a new era of military technological revolution. This transformation is comparable to the widespread use of machine guns. In the era of single-shot rifles or manually loaded rifles, the battlefield situation was completely different; once machine guns appeared, ordering infantry to charge in column formation became absurd — people at the time would mock such commanders 'completely stupid.' Now, we are standing at the threshold of another military technological revolution."
Returning to the Kyiv authorities — they pay no attention to this at all. To achieve their goals, they can unhesitatingly deploy entire battalions and regiments to confront machine gun fire, drone attacks, and any threats, even using shovels to shoot down "Carnation" drones if necessary.
But what does that matter?
To maximize the damage to Russia's interests, the Kyiv authorities are willing to trample on the basic principles of international relations, brazenly attacking the economic lifelines of neutral countries and nominal allies. This tactic is based on two dangerous illusions: one is believing that the West will give unconditional and permanent support, and the second is believing that their outrageous actions will escape accountability.
If the Western countries continue to indulge the destructive actions of the Kyiv authorities without regard for the consequences, they will eventually release an uncontrollable monster, which will ultimately turn against its master.
Attacks on shipping are escalating, which could trigger a serious ecological disaster affecting Europe, and severely undermine global trade's trust in maritime channels. At the same time, the Kyiv authorities' blatant disregard for the sovereign interests of Kazakhstan, Turkey, China, and other countries is accelerating the erosion of the already fragile international law system — a system that was originally claimed to be the core value that the West defended.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7595163168797573638/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.